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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (35857)	11/6/2009 10:28:17 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

Most companies have third party evaluations of the NPV (based on year end status and prices) once a year only when they file their 10k. Larger companies don't state the NPV at all, they just publish the reserve numbers. The NPV during the years tend to vary widely (even the third party validated number vary widely - ATPG went from 2.6B$ NPV(2007 10k) to 1B$ NPV (2008 10k) probably due to crude prices) and they are based on management estimates and not numbers from a 3rd party audit firm. That is why I am skeptical of the numbers that ATPG is posting because it differs tremendously from the 12/31/08 number in the 10k ( there are valid reasons for this but still it's a factor 5x higher) and because ATPG has a track record of overpromising. As I see ATPG's dire situation a few month ago and the prospect of running out of cash, i can't blame them on promoting their prospects but given the circumstances, i think chances are pretty high that they are overpromising. I only vaguely remember the story around the promising North Sea assets, but I sure would study what happened in 2006 or so, if I had a substantial investment in this stock.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (35857)	11/7/2009 9:48:23 AM
From: Area51	Respond to of 78753

In addition to NAV and PV-10, the other (more-important) thing to look at is CF and EV\EBITDA and I think ATPG looks very good if you look at those metrics (e.g www1.investorvillage.com and managements forward projections on production and assume oil prices stay somewhere around where they are now. If you assume that the management projections are all hogwash not so much (but my personal opinion is that ATPG management does a pretty good job). The other thing that gives me some confidence s that Ed Ajootian I think has a position, and this guy is one that makes coming to SI worthwhile and profitable. Message 26076344 www1.investorvillage.com