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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (24063)	11/9/2009 11:08:05 AM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 71463

Dollar reached 15-month low in wake of G20 meeting Euro presses back above $1.50 Related stories U.K.'s Brown not backing away from 'Tobin tax' (10:45a) Treasury edge up before 3-year-note auction (10:43a) Euro pushes back above $1.50 versus U.S. dollar (5:45a) British shares advance as oil firms, miners gain (10:36a) Story Quotes Comments Screener (35) Alert Email Print ShareBy Deborah Levine & William L. Watts, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar weakened Monday, pushing an index of the greenback down more than 1% and to the lowest in 15 months, after a weekend meeting of Group of 20 policy makers offered no support for the U.S. unit. Traders also took heed of an International Monetary Fund report issued at the G20 meeting that said the dollar has moved closer to "medium-term equilibrium" but "still remains on the strong side." 'Risk is bid, the dollar is on its way down.' RBC Capital Markets The dollar index /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 (DXY 75.05, -0.62, -0.81%) , a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of rival currencies, fell as low as 74.930, a level last seen since August 2008. It recently traded at 75.041, down from 75.760 in North American trading late Friday. The euro pressed back above the psychologically important $1.50 level for the first time since Oct. 26. It struggled to push much higher and recently traded up about 1% at $1.4997, up from $1.4840 on Friday. /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 DXY 75.05, -0.62, -0.81% 908580757009FAJAOThe single currency extended its gain after data showed German industrial production rose 2.7% in September. Earlier, the British pound jumped as much as 1.3% and recently bought $1.6751. The dollar stood at 89.79 Japanese yen, little changed. As expected, the G20's weekend communique made no mention of currency levels. Meeting in St. Andrews, Scotland, the finance ministers and central bankers vowed to keep stimulus measures in place until a recovery gains a solid footing, encouraging investors to take on riskier assets such as stocks to the detriment of the dollar's safe-haven demand. See full story on G20. "Risk is bid, the dollar is on its way down," said strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "Like a broken record, the theme once again is U.S. dollar weakness across the board." Protests a Prelude to Obama's Japan VisitProtesters take to the streets, demonstrating against the continuation of a U.S. Marine Air Station in Okinawa, as Japan's capital prepares to host President Barack Obama for the first time. WSJ's Akiko Fujita reports from a rally in Tokyo. The IMF report also said the dollar is being used as a funding currency for carry trades, which involve borrowing funds denominated in lower-interest currencies -- such as the dollar and yen -- and investing in higher-yielding assets denominated in other currencies. "These trades may be contributing to upward pressure on the euro and some emerging-economy currencies," the IMF said. The report said the euro "has experienced most appreciation among major advanced economy currencies" and also "remains on the strong side of its equilibrium." The assurances from G20 leaders about securing growth confirmed the status quo, said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at The Bank of New York Mellon. "All in all, therefore, it is difficult to see this policy mix as anything other than a recipe for continued dollar weakness ... particularly when we add the familiar absence of concerted plans for cooperative, corrective action by the G20," he said. Add in the IMF's "rather frank assessment" that the dollar is on the strong side, "the tolerance threshold of various central banks and finance ministries is once more back under the spotlight," Mellor said. Euro-zone officials have frequently complained about the weakness of the U.S. dollar, arguing that the euro is being forced to bear the brunt of adjustments between the U.S. unit and Asian currencies. Analysts at BNP Paribas emphasized that the IMF remarks referred to the dollar on a trade-weighted basis and largely reflect the undervaluation of Asian currencies -- particularly the Chinese yuan. Nevertheless, "the market will take this as a green light to continue with the broader U.S. dollar bearish trade," they wrote.