Franco, you are apparently incorrect. MUSE works on only 65% of patients. Plus it is also a drug, and has side ffects.
To: Leo Francis (1745 )
From: DR. BOND
Thursday, Oct 30 1997 8:25PM EST
Reply #1752 of 1875
Leo..A quick answer to post 1739 would be appreciated! FYI..PW BUY REC!
The following is a reprint of a Painewebber Research report which came out today
PRIOR TO THE JANSSEN NEWS!
VVUS $26
52 wk range $13 7/8 - 41 7/8
ytd performance +44%
Shares outstanding 33.1 million
Market Cap 861 million
LT debt/Total debt 0%
Rating: BUY
Company description :
Vivus markets the Medicated Urethal System for Erection (MUSE), a disposable, non
invasive applicator system that delivers the drug alprostadil, a vasodilating agent,
transurethrally to induce an erection. It is targeted to patients who suffer from erectile
disfunction, or the inability to achieve and maintain an erection of sufficient rigidity for
sexual intercourse. In a 996- patient study conducted at 58 medical centers throughout
the United States, approximately 65% of the participants on the active drug achieved
an erection sufficiently rigid to perform intercourse, compared with 19% on the
placebo. Vivus received FDA marketing approval for the MUSE in November 1996
and began marketing the product in January 1997.
Key Investment Points :
-Huge potential market opportunity. An estimated 50 million men in the world suffer
from erectile dysfunction, yet less than 10% of the affected population are currently
seeking treatment for this condition. We are assuming that one million of these men, or
only 2% of the potential worldwide market, will be using MUSE therapy by the year
2000.
-U.K. approval is imminent. Regulatory clearance for the MUSE in the United
Kingdom should be granted this quarter, which will trigger a $2 million milestone
payment to Vivus from Astra AB, its marketing partner in Europe, Australia, New
Zealand, Central and South America. Other international markets, such as the Pacific
Rim, China, Canada and Mexico, will leverage the distribution strenghts of Janssen
Pharmaceautica and are expected to come on stream throughout 1998.
-Capacity constraints should wane by January 1998. Sales of the MUSE to date have
been limited only by production capacity constraints. In late June, Vivus increased its
production capability by approximately 20% with the addition of a new filling machine.
The company recently began validation studies and stability runs on its new 90,000
square foot production facillity. We beleive that this plant will be ready to come on line
by January 1998, and, when fully implemented, it will augment current capacity by
fourfold. Vivus also expects to break ground on a European manufacturing facility in
Ireland by the end of the year, it should be completed some time in 1999.
-Corporate development efforts should yeld results soon. While the MUSE has been ,
by any measure, an extremely successful product, many investors are on the belief that
Vivus is, and will remain, a one product company. Quite the contrary, in our opinion.
Armed with nearly $ 100 million in cash and a stock that provides a valuable currency
for acquisitions, we fully expect management to go out and bring in additional products
or technologies to build a board-based urology company. In April, Vivus hired John
Richard as vice president of corporate development. Mr. Richard, who has 14 years
experience in negotiating and developing strategic partnerships, joint ventures and
licenses in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries, has been very active since
joining Vivus and we expect his efforts to bear fruit in future quarters.
Issues and Risks
-Most investors remain concerned about new oral treatments for erectile dysfunction,
paraticularly Pfizer's Viagra (sildenafil). The company submited its NDA to the FDA
and the European Medicines Evaluation Agency on September 29, and announced on
October 21 on October 21 that it would receive expedited review status by the FDA.
When or if an oral medication becomes available, it would be naive for us to assume
that it would not become the average individual's initial treatment of choice. The
availability of oral medications will, we beleive, prompt many more sufferes to seek
treatment, particularly in light of the advertising budget that Pfizer will allocate to
Viagra. We do, however, beleive that oral medications will not be successful in all
casees ( probably most often in psychogenic patients or those with mild organic
dysfunction), allowing a safe and effective treatment such as the MUSE to assume a
profitable niche within the growing erectile dysfunction market.
Vivus' ability to both manufacture the MUSE in sufficient commercial quantities, market
it successfully to its customer base , and expand its products protofolio, constitute the
other risks to our investment thesis.
Disclaimer: This report is reprinted from an original and therefore may contain some
errors and thus one cannot rely 100% on the accuracy of the information contained
herein. (CYA Regulation)! |
