To: Maurice Winn who wrote (32030 ) 11/11/2009 12:55:17 PM From: axial 1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 46821 Interesting thoughts... they align with those of most people, especially technophiles, who believe they can defeat thermodynamics with ingenuity. The reality will be different, and has already begun to assert itself. The cost of a kilojoule is vertically integrated into everything we do, and that cost is rising steadily. As it rises, the cost of finding new energy sources rises with it. The cost of producing new technology also rises. The cost of energy transportation rises, as the cost of transmission losses increases . The cost of heating, cooling, agriculture, fishing, logging, mass transit and a myriad of other activities rises - and as it does, unless compensation increases with it (it won't because the same effect is occurring within industry) - it consumes an increasing portion of the average income. That is, the rising cost of energy begins to marginalize larger portions of the population. Fusion power is still a distant possibility - and remains unproven though theoretically achievable. Yes there are techniques that mitigate the consequences of fossil fuel use, but they are incidental to the cost, and have an additive energy cost of their own. Carbon sequestration may work but as yet, it's unproven - and there's no proof that over time, tectonic movement won't re-release trapped CO2."Contrary to popular myth, climate is not just not in balance and stable, but oscillates [as do so many natural processes]. That oscillation is caused by expansion and contraction of deserts, snow and clouds [high reflectivity] and plants and oceans [high light absorption]." Regardless of whose "mythology" we choose to accept on the subject of warming, it doesn't change the energy cost dynamic - it only modifies it. Environmental cost is a vital consideration, but not relevant to the absolute cost of obtaining, transporting, storing and using energy."With $150 oil, the stampede into making mega$bucks is huge, with every man and his dog getting into the energy business and coming up with swarms of methods of getting a piece of the action. People also burn a lot less . So we already know the maximum price for energy." QED. "People burn a lot less." Exactly! Demand destruction ! Why? Because they can't afford it. Nor can they afford the cost of products made with equivalent-cost energy, whether it's solar, wave-action, windmill or people on bicycles wearing solar-panel hats. Nor can the industries selling those products grow, because their customers are being marginalized, just as their business is being marginalized by rising energy costs. Humans and technology cannot defeat thermodynamics: they can only adjust their living to its demands. Equilibrium is the best we can hope for, and we're a long, long way from that. Energy cost is not a transient phenomenon, it's a physical and economic reality that was interrupted by a century of abundance, never to be seen again. Now we revert to the historical mean, and many supposed "entitlements" of our time will be destroyed in the process. Jim