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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: No Mo Mo who wrote (24195)	11/11/2009 11:12:19 PM
From: benwood	1 Recommendation Respond to of 71463

I meant his view that the consensus is that the dollar will rally. Generally, the herd prepares for a move, so if everybody is on the same side of the boat, it will list the other way. As for my own opinion... I'm truly terrible at short term predictions, esp. of currency moves. I understand some of the technical nature of the dollar rally last year, and I also believe much of that cause flushed out. Therefore, I believe dollar rallies will be of shorter duration and of less strength. For that reason, I'm more reluctant for now at least to dump any hedges which for me are mostly pm shares and e.g. CEF. However... I have started to think about dumping both my $AU and $CAN, at least partially, as there's the specter of competitive devaluations by hook or crook, and those economies simply do not want to have a weak $US dollar dampening our imports and driving our exports. That's short term, however. I see a long, slow, anguishing malaise enveloping our economy, and the winners will be at the periphery (overseas). Except for Apple and a few other companies, I see continued employment difficulties which I think are more or less permanent, because I don't think another bubble that produces employment will be engineered successfully (and if attempted, it will suck us into a black hole ala USSR). Heck, that may happen anyway -- we're the Titanic steaming at 30 knots in subzero weather. Who needs more excitement than that? edit: I should add that a much lower dollar will boost employment in low wage states, ala South Caroline and the 787. But the average wage per citizen will continue to drop nevertheless.