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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (57812)	11/13/2009 5:44:32 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 217588

Germany's Economy Continues To Recover By ANDREA THOMAS Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES BERLIN -- Germany's economy continued to recover from recession in the third quarter, boosted by exports and investments in equipment and buildings. Third-quarter real gross domestic product rose 0.7% from the second quarter when adjusted for working days, compared with economists' forecasts of a 0.8% rise, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed Friday. Private consumption, however, dragged down the economy in the third quarter, the office said. "The German economy has emerged from the deep recession earlier and faster than many had thought. The latest monthly numbers show that industrial production has taken over the baton from car-driven private consumption as the main growth driver," said Carsten Brzeski, economist with ING Financial Markets. "Looking ahead, the current momentum is likely stay for some time. The inventory cycle has just started to turn and positive news will continue." Still, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the outlook of the German economy because unemployment is expected to rise in the coming months, curbing consumer demand. With the euro also trading at high levels against the dollar, German exporters may suffer from weaker demand, economists said. "Germany's economic growth recovery during the two last quarters is encouraging but its significance must not be overstated. To a considerable degree this reflects a natural turnaround for inventories as orders have improved," said Timo Klein, economist with IHS Global Insight. "Thus the underlying investment trend should still be negative well into 2010, given that capacity utilization levels will remain below long-term averages for several quarters yet. Furthermore, the lagged boosting impact of the recession on unemployment will hit private consumption until at least mid-2010." Brzeski said that the export-driven recovery is "all well and good but in order to shift into a higher gear, the German economy needs domestic demand." "The bad times are over but the good times have not started, yet. Even with today's good numbers, complacency would be a bad advisor," he said. For the year as a whole, the German government forecasts German economy to contract 5%, before growing by 1.2% in 2010. The third-quarter growth marked the second quarterly gain after weak activity in the previous quarters, indicating that the euro zone's largest economy is making progress in easing out of its worst recession since World War II. But overall economic activity remains low, with German GDP shrinking 4.8% in the third quarter from the year-earlier period, when adjusted for the number of working days each year, the data showed. The statistics office also revised up GDP numbers for the second quarter of 2009. The German economy grew 0.4% from the preceding quarter, compared with a 0.3% rise previously reported. From a year ago, GDP fell 5.8% in the second quarter compared with the previously reported 5.9% drop. The statistics office is due to publish more detailed GDP data Nov. 24. Imports grew in the third quarter, which resulted in a rise of inventory stocks, the statistics office said. The euro was little changed by the growth numbers, trading around $1.487. The German data are better than preliminary data from Spain, where the economy contracted by 0.3% on quarter, and also from France, where GDP was up a quarterly 0.3%. --By Andrea Thomas, Dow Jones Newswires; +49 30 2888 4126 +49 30 2888 4126 ; andrea.thomas@dowjones.com