To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (528829 ) 11/14/2009 7:45:07 AM From: Road Walker Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1574854 Fortunately, leveler heads, not ideologically driven and provincial, have prevailed worldwide.... --- APEC Wary of Withdrawing Stimulus Too Early, Too Late Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Asia-Pacific leaders said the withdrawal of economic stimulus packages is all about timing: too early and the recovery stalls, too late and resultant stock and property bubbles may trigger a fresh financial crisis. “It is premature to talk about recovery of the global economy,” Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev said in a speech in Singapore today ahead of a meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders. Nations must coordinate their exit from anti-crisis measures “with insurance against the risk of premature or late actions,” he said. Asia will lead the return to growth, followed by the U.S. and Europe, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told reporters at the same meeting yesterday. Fiscal and monetary stimulus measures need separate exit strategies and timing, as policy makers seek a balance between protecting nascent growth and preventing asset bubbles. “As our region returns to trend, exit strategies for fiscal stimulus must be carefully timed,” Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda said yesterday. “If left too long, deficits will be unsustainable; if withdrawn too soon, the region’s recovery could be derailed.” The value of global stocks has soared by more than $20 trillion since March, an amount 10 times larger than the emergency stimulus spending put in place. The Group of 20 nations last week outlined a timetable to rebalance the global economy, mapping ways to exit from stimulus programs, which also included coordinated interest rate cuts. ‘Destabilizing Factors’ “A comprehensive world recovery still faces many uncertainties and destabilizing factors,” China’s President Hu Jintao told executives in Singapore yesterday at the annual APEC group gathering. “We should turn the crisis into an opportunity and lay a solid foundation for the full recovery.” A late withdrawal of stimulus may stoke price increases in stocks and properties, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said yesterday. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said policy makers must avoid prematurely ending fiscal programs until a “real” recovery is secured. “The recovery is fragile and sluggish,” Strauss-Kahn said. “The pace will be different from one country to another. There’s no one-size-fits-all solution.” Within APEC, Australia has started raising interest rates and South Korea signaled a readiness to increase borrowing costs in coming months. The U.S. Federal Reserve has pledged to keep its target rate near zero for an “extended period.” ‘Pure Oxygen’ New Zealand Prime Minister John Key told the business leaders that withdrawing stimulus measures would be difficult as major economies are “still breathing the pure oxygen” of fiscal support. Exit strategies must be gradual and coordinated, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said. Governments are not rushing to end stimulus programs. Singapore last month extended a wage subsidy for employers set to expire this year to avoid an increase in job losses that may derail the city-state’s recovery. The U.S. is extending a tax credit for first-time homebuyers and unemployment insurance benefits. “An early withdrawal may cause irreparable damage,” said Chilean President Michelle Bachelet. “It’s still too early to withdraw the fiscal packages and monetary easing that avoided a much deeper crisis.” Recovery Stages World Bank President Robert Zoellick said this week governments should follow through with their fiscal stimulus plans, adding that additional measures are not yet necessary. APEC finance ministers on Nov. 12 said such actions have prevented a deeper global recession and that they will remain vigilant until the recovery “gains traction.” “The pace of implementing exit strategies should take into account different stages in the economic recovery of member economies, the type of policy measures to be phased out, and any spillovers caused by our strategies,” the ministers said. The world is not likely to face a “double-dip” recession, Strauss-Kahn said. The cleansing of banks’ balance sheets of toxic assets is not over, and the recovery won’t be complete until that is done, he said. Asian governments have pumped more than $950 billion into their economies after the global credit crunch cut demand for the region’s cars and flat-panel televisions. As the region exits the slowdown faster than other parts of the world, housing prices in some economies are rising. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 57 percent this year, while benchmarks in Indonesia, India and China posted even more larger gains. The Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping interest rates near zero is fueling a wave of speculative capital that may cause the next global crisis, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang said at the Singapore conference yesterday. “And where is the money going -- it’s where the problem’s going to be: Asia,” Tsang said. “And again you can see asset prices going up, not only in Korea, in Taiwan, in Singapore and in Hong Kong, going up to levels that are incompatible or inconsistent with the economic fundamentals.” To contact the reporters on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net Find out more about Bloomberg for iPhone: bbiphone.bloomberg.com