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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: akidron who wrote (10177)	10/31/1997 9:07:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

akidron, thank you for sharing your thoughts! Is this why we had an up day?... Excerpt: Jiang, with NYSE officials at his side, stood on a balcony overlooking the trading floor and shouted ''Good Morning.'' He rang the bell that signals the start of the day's trading, smiled broadly and gave a thumbs up sign. biz.yahoo.com GM GM <eom>

To: akidron who wrote (10177)	10/31/1997 9:49:00 PM
From: davesd	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Akidron, a DRAM chip is pretty much a standard chip, be it EDO or SDRAM...there is no difference in the DRAM chips that MU or Hyundai makes, except the design and manufacture process...however, the end product has to meet the same spec. MU is also know as the lowest cost producer in the world. They have been able to shrink the die the most and use several process steps less than others. With DRAM at $4 per chip it is widely believed that all 16M DRAM makers are losing money. This has been in the news lately. MU became the low cost producer by fine tuning their design and manufacturing process...not by adding tons of capacity....as a matter of fact they stopped the buildout of Lehi. With pretty much the same equipment, MU has transitioned from 4M to 16M and are now moving to 64M, so I'm not so sure how obsolete their equipment is. Adding more capacity, just makes the situation worse for everyone as it adds to the existing glut....there is just too much DRAM chasing the same money. The Asians have had several week long shutdowns trying better the situation, but it didn't work. They have also taken several production lines off line to reduce capacity, but the DRAM keeps pouring out. Anyways...good luck with your strategy next week. dave

To: akidron who wrote (10177)	10/31/1997 10:08:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Akidron, Another excellent and eloquent post with good positive argument! Let me ask you this, if you purchase the stock at $32 and it goes to $37-39 will you sell and take profits since that would be about a 30% profit, short term? Or, will you hold the stock hoping it will continue on its' upward movement. Were I in your shoes, my inclination would be to take the short term profits and wait for other opportunities at lower prices and "ride the waves" to compound utilizing the volatility of the market/stock, but that is me. What will you do, take the bird in hand or look for the two in the bush? (an old country adage). BB

To: akidron who wrote (10177)	11/1/1997 7:11:00 AM
From: Steve Byers	Respond to of 70976

I disagree with one point in your post... and only to a degree... that chip prices ARE falling because of reduced demand (versus expected demand---actual demand is still increased over prior periods, but below expectations of 6 or 8 weeks ago)... AND because of the increased productivity that comes with each life cycle as it matures (in its 18-24 month phase)... so one the one hand it IS due to productivity gains and demand, bu talso the maturity of the cycle AND somewhat lower expectations...I believe that Dell was hit the past few days as it announced it was somewhat below expectations on sales.... but I haven't seen this myself... I'm long, and own the dec 37.5's (calls) and am short the 32.5 puts in Nov... another nice way to take in money to offset belief that prices will rise, but not sure how much... and if I'm wrong and amat is below 32.5 on nov 21... wallah... I own it at 32.5 less the premium... which I believe was 2 1/2 or so... buying at 30 is not bad... and if its higher which I truly expect... then the premium is mine and the calls are in the money as well as the underlying...I've sold 40 nov puts at 32.5 and own 40 calls for dec at 37.5 and am also short 30 jan 40 puts, so in a way, I hope there is questionable news in the earnings conference call so I am put the stock... but long term this is a buy point in this range for wealth accumulation... we'll see soon enough... good luck