See.....you're wrong. Wingers are good people. Here are two wingers trying to give good advice to Obama. They aren't whining. They are trying to help him!
Obama Is Losing Independent Voters
A number of recent polls show the president would be wise to shift right.
By SCOTT RASMUSSEN AND DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN
The announcement a week ago of 10.2% unemployment is a significant political event for President Barack Obama. It could well usher in a particularly serious crisis for his political standing, influence and ability to advance his agenda.
Double-digit unemployment drove Ronald Reagan's disapproval ratings in October 1982 up to a record high 54%. It was only when unemployment dropped to 7.3%, roughly two years later, that he was able to win a landslide victory over Democratic challenger Walter Mondale in the 1984 presidential election.
Similarly, Franklin Roosevelt's success in the 1930s in reducing the 25% unemployment rate he inherited down to the mid-teens was almost certainly responsible for his success in the 1934 midterm elections and in the 1936 presidential elections.
Mr. Obama faces a similar challenge. A detailed look at the available survey data suggests that the difficulties may be more substantial than those suggested by the recent off-year elections.
Mr. Obama's approval among likely voters has dropped to the low-50s in most polls, and the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters shows him slightly below the 50% mark. This is a relatively low rating for new presidents. Mr. Obama's approval rating began to slide in a serious way in early July, triggered by a bad unemployment report.
A look at more detailed data shows why Mr. Obama's ratings are likely to drop even further.
A CNN poll released Nov. 6 found that 47% of Americans believe the top issue facing the country is the economy, while only 17% say its health care. However, the bulk of the president's efforts over the past six months have been not on the economy but on health care, an issue in which he continues to draw negative ratings.
In a Rasmussen Reports poll taken after the House of Representatives passed health-care reform by the narrowest of margins last Saturday night, 54% of likely voters say they are opposed to the plan with only 45% in favor. Furthermore, in the all-important category of unaffiliated voters, 58% oppose the bill. That's one of the reasons why so many moderate Democratic House members opposed it.
The CNN poll also shows that in addition to health care, a majority of Americans disapprove of how Mr. Obama is handling the economy, Afghanistan, Iraq, unemployment, illegal immigration and the federal budget deficit. Put simply, there isn't a critical problem facing the country on which the president has positive ratings.
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted from Oct. 22-25 found that the president's personal ratings have suffered a similar decline. His rating for being honest and straightforward has fallen eight points from January to 33% and his rating for being firm and decisive has fallen 10 points to 27%.
Even more fundamentally, a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted from Oct. 15-18 shows that the president has now reached a point where less than a majority of Americans believe he will make the right decisions for the country.
A Rasmussen Reports poll released Oct. 26 shows that only one-third of likely voters believe the stimulus package has helped the economy. And two separate Rasmussen Reports polls from earlier this month showed that less than half of likely voters approve of the health-care initiative, while a majority (55%) expect politics to become even more partisan in the coming year. Meanwhile, almost half of respondents told Rasmussen Reports that since Mr. Obama has been in office they are doing worse economically. Respondents by a 62%-27% majority respondents say they trust themselves over the president to make economic decisions facing the nation.
Until recently, Mr. Obama has been able to blame George W. Bush for the country's economic problems. October's NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that while this is still a credible argument, it is less persuasive as the president's time in office increases.
The percentage of respondents who believe that Mr. Obama "inherited" the economic situation has dropped steadily over the year from a high of 84% in February down to 63% in this latest poll. This week's Rasmussen Reports poll shows an even bigger drop, with 49% of respondents blaming Mr. Bush and 45% blaming Mr. Obama. This is the first time in Rasmussen Reports' polls that less than 55% blame Mr. Bush for the country's economic problems. It is fair to conclude that by the beginning of next year, the problems of America will be Mr. Obama's problems, and references to his predecessor will increasingly fall on deaf ears.
What then, is Mr. Obama to do?
He has found himself in a false and arguably artificial conundrum on health care, with the two alternatives being his bill with a public option and a trillion-dollar price tag, or no bill at all. While the failure to pass a health-care bill could be devastating for his administration, polling suggests that ramming through an expensive bill with a public option (potentially using procedural techniques in the Senate) could divide America and not improve his standing with the public.
Voters would like to see compromises on key elements of health care to reduce costs, while the Democrats' plan has appeared to focus largely on expanding coverage. According to a poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports from Oct. 2-3, 61% of likely voters want Congress to act this year but only 45% favor the current plan. There is a clear, bipartisan majority who favor a less costly bill that incrementally increases coverage, provides insurance reform involving pre-existing conditions, and experiments with tort reform and competition across state lines.
Deficit reduction and reining in spending are critically important priorities for the vast majority of the electorate. Indeed, according to a Rasmussen Reports Poll conducted at the end of last month, voters say deficit reduction is most important and health care is a distant second.
Moreover, according to a poll released by the Kaufman Foundation in September, a plurality of voters (32%) think the federal government should cut tax rates on payrolls and businesses to stimulate employment, particularly at a time when unemployment is at double-digits. Mr. Obama campaigned on tax cuts for 95% of the American people, but according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released in mid-August, just 6% of likely voters expect to get a tax cut. Over 40% of respondents believe that they will get a tax increase.
The off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia were indeed a warning sign to Mr. Obama. While the presidents ratings aren't likely to dip much further by year's end—given the size and support of his base—by focusing exclusively on his base he could create lasting political problems that plague the remainder of his term.
Unless Mr. Obama changes his approach and starts governing in a more fiscally conservative, bipartisan manner, the independents that provided his margin of victory in 2008 and gave the Democrats control of Congress will likely swing back to the Republicans, putting Democratic control of Congress in real jeopardy. /b>
Mr. Rasmussen is president of Rasmussen Reports, an independent national polling company. Mr. Schoen, formerly a pollster for President Bill Clinton, is the author of "Declaring Independence: The Beginning of the End of the Two Party System" (Random House, 2008).
online.wsj.com |
