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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Amark$p who wrote (24342)11/17/2009 11:26:31 AM
From: ggersh  Respond to of 71456
 
Thanks, thought he could be spot on!



To: Amark$p who wrote (24342)11/17/2009 10:03:17 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71456
 
I like Hugh and especially his contrarianism, however, he seems to be rather vague in his final analysis.

>> So it is not inconceivable, at least in my mind, that financial institutions, and notable amongst them the nation's pension and endowment schemes, could be motivated by another basic human emotion, namely fear for their own survival, to snap up all these new government bonds. Perhaps in the end supply will create its own demand. <<

The trade deficit will decline. US consumers will save more, but of course the gov. is fighting/resisting this effort. The US is not Japan either when it comes to the "greater" good. If funds can earn 1/4 of 1% somewhere else where they feel the risks are equal they'll gladly do so. I don't see how supply will create it's own demand.

In this case I think we'll probably have multiple periods of inflation/deflation and similar sudden stops to what we experienced last year. I think Gregor has said something very similar. I do think what Hugh is saying will have an impact, but I don't see how it'll be enough. One of the bigger tasks ahead will be scaling back gov, but we're going in the wrong direction and demographically and economically speaking more voters are likely to vote for those who give handouts vs scaling back gov (not that there's much difference between the parties fiscally anyway)

So what countries are accepting financial pilgrims these days?