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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (125731)	11/17/2009 12:18:03 PM
From: JGreg	Respond to of 206184

RE: Land rigs I'll throw this out and you can make of it what you think-- I have a friend who was hired out of the military by Chesapeake as a roughneck (heard they are also recruiting at prisons now), sent to AR for training on rigs, was told those two training rigs in AR will be dismantled and sent to the Marcellus fields, he will continue his training in PA but company can't tell him where he will actually work after training because they have hired a ton of new workers but don't have the rigs to drill with.

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (125731)	11/30/2009 3:42:01 PM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206184

Logging While Investing OFS Weekly Analysis 4Q09 Warnings and Raises 36 pages, 28 exhibits, 540 KB Link: sendspace.com Excerpt: 4Q09 Warnings. Last week brought 4Q09 warning signs from HAL, BJS and WFT. HAL signaled a negative $0.02 EPS impact from slower largely natural gas activity in Mexico, which cast at least some shadow on other service peers (particularly, we think, BJS). HAL's message was intended to be limited to 4Q09, although the company's call for less spending in gassy areas next year is consistent with what we have heard from Pemex itself. BJS' FY4Q09 results were predictably met with a yawn given its pending acquisition by BHI. But if margin misses across regions were indeed due to less focus on cost savings due to the merger (as we suspect), and if BHI's plan remains to let BJS operate fairly independently, then BJS may be somewhat less efficient than peers 2010. And for WFT, 6 analysts lowered 4Q09 earnings estimates last week (ourselves included), reflecting a resetting of expectations for European margins and, at least in our case, less robust revenue quarter in Asia. Please see our notes last week: Pemex 2010 Spending Signs: HAL Announces 4Q09 ($0.02) EPS Impact; BJS Reports FQ4 2009 recurring EPS of ($0.01) vs. Our $0.01 and the Street's $0.02, WFT: More Bumps in the Road; Lowering Estimates and TP. Yet we raised some outlooks on 4Q09 as well. As earnings season wrapped up for our coverage, we raised CY4Q09 earnings estimates for HP and BRS. For HP, we raised the quarter to $0.51 from $0.37, consistent with our revision of our FY10 (September) EPS estimate to $2.13 from $1.75, to reflect higher U.S. Land activity levels and margins, higher offshore activity and the management contract in Equatorial Guinea, and a lower tax rate. And for BRS, We are raising our FY10/FY11 estimates to $3.08/$2.86 from $2.75/$2.69 to reflect margin improvement, which appears sustainable given improved mix and efficiency gains. Please see HP FYQ409 MWR: Raising Estimates and BRS FYQ210 MWR: Efficiency for specific earnings color. Valuation re-ratings in European OFS. As Credit Suisse energy analyst Tao Ly assumes coverage of European Oilfield Service companies, he concludes the sector is fairly valued, including that Credit Suisse's HOLT® methodology points to lower likely cash returns versus the last cycle. Tao favors exposure to defensive backlog businesses via Technip and Petrofac (upgrade to OP from N). We also favor Wood Group on an earnings momentum basis (remain OP) and Wellstream on a longer term basis, weighing up the potential for near term earnings downgrades with an undemanding level of embedded cash flow returns in HOLT® (upgrade to Outperform from Neutral). Tao has also downgraded Saipem and SBM Offshore to Underperform from Neutral and is maintaining an Underperform on CGGVeritas. Please see European Oilfield Services: Weighing it up: HOLT vs. the short term, dated November 25, 2009. Our take on the group. We remain wary of the U.S. landscape for much beyond a trade to take advantage of the very near term pick up expected in U.S. activity. But the global 2010 outlook for OFS continues to trickle more positive. As this earnings season appears to be demonstrating, including via the demand step-up witnessed in the jackup market, the tone on international spending is improving and we take greater confidence in an outlook of flat-to-modestly-up spending. The companies are generally exhibiting solid cost control, which lends itself to some upside bias to our generally still-below-the-Street estimates. However, we continue to struggle, with how much of this better outlook has been reflected in shares for some time and thus we remain very selective. In diversified service large caps, HAL (top pick) and SLB appear well positioned to outperform. And we continue to prefer free cash flow generative drillers with healthy deepwater exposure including RIG and NE.