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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (3246)	11/1/1997 8:42:00 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Tech Investors Acting Irrationally excerpt Barrons 11/3/97 interactive.wsj.com Dan Hutcheson, president of VLSI Research, a San Jose firm that tracks the semiconductor-equipment industry, reckons that investors have been handed a buying opportunity. The biggest concern for the equipment sector, Hutcheson says, has been the potential for a slowdown in demand from Taiwan, which recently has snapped up about 15% of global chipmaking gear, up from 11%-12% a year ago. "People think Taiwan has overbuilt, that they'll crash," he says. Most of what the Taiwanese chipmakers produce, though, ends up in goods sold in the U.S. and Europe -- not Taiwan or Hong Kong or Malaysia. Not only that, but Hutcheson believes the drive by Taiwanese chip producers to build market share will overshadow their profitability concerns. "They'll spend whether they make money or not," Hutcheson contends. "People tend to overlay an American bottom-line orientation over Asian economies. It's the same mistake we made during the Vietnam War." The real issue for the Taiwanese, Hutcheson says, has been how they'll fund their insatiable demand for chipmaking gear. Hutcheson says some U.S. equipment leasing firms, including Comdisco and General Electric's GE Capital unit, have stepped in to provide financing for the purchase of high-priced hardware used in chip-making plants. The bottom line, Hutcheson says, is that the sound and fury over the Asian crisis signifies nothing for most chip-equipment firms. Concludes Hutcheson: "We've looked at it closely, and we see no significant effect." Hutcheson expects global chip-equipment sales to grow 21% next year, up from just 5% this year. In 1999, Hutcheson predicts, sales growth could hit 30%, propelled by the chip industry's move to parts with smaller and smaller lines, first 0.25 micron from the current 0.35 micron standard, then 0.18 micron in subsequent years. Hutcheson, it turns out, is nearly as optimistic about overall chip demand, forecasting revenue growth of 22.3% in 1998, up from 9.3% this year. "If I were in the business of recommending stocks," he says, "I'd be recommending buying across the board."

To: Paul V. who wrote (3246)	11/1/1997 7:44:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Hi Paul, Yes and No. How's that for a clear answer -g-? I lightened up on AMAT and am hoping to get back in at lower prices. I feel we are in "we-don't-know-land" at least until the AMAT CC. (I still am long some AMAT and still love the company.) The number of posts has been overwhelming lately and I find that it's just not worth my time to read them all. [I am specifically referring to those posts that say, nananana, AMAT is dropping to $6, and other such rocket science postings, (you know the ones).] Thanks for missing me anyway. Oh, I do have something newsworthy to post that I don't think has yet been posted on this thread anyway. This is from Barrons, 27 Oct 97 (last week), the interview with Bill Fleckenstein. I clipped the part where he talks about CYMI. Is on page 34. Q: "Is that a wrap?" A: "I'm short one other little company, Cymer, Symbol CYMI. They make UV bulbs that go into semiconductor lithography equipment. The story was that they had a very sexy laser and no competition. But it turns out that they do have competition and their customers are having some problems. Now this isn't a huge market to begin with and Cymer already has made enough bulbs to supply it for quite some time. Their business is just going to stop. Yet at nine times revenues it has a $1 billion market valuation. In any other environment, the stock would be a teenager already. [It's around 28.] It's a great story. Even its investment bankers have dropped their recommendations." He was short MU, DELL, GTW, HWP, IBM, MXIM, CYMI. He is/was long one tech company, called 8 x 8, EGHT, which he stated he would buy on dips. My question on this to anyone who follows Cymer is: So, does Fleckenstein know what he speaketh of or not? Regards, Teri