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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (104571)	11/19/2009 11:26:33 AM
From: axial	4 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Like others here, have been betting against the market for months --- won some, lost others. Everything you've said has been accurate, but it hasn't made any difference. At some point, the fundamentals will override everything, but when? Despite the fact that the US, UK and Euro economies show fundamental weakness and China is looking bubbly, markets have been defying gravity. Energy has been priced far above demand, despite huge stockpiling. Currencies? To laugh. Fundamentals will assert themselves, but need a trigger of some kind. If stimulus stops, that may do it. If economies do make gains, negative factors kick in as monetary policy withdraws liquidity - triggering another set of negatives. It's a zero-sum game. The most unsound economies will be hit, but not all. The healthy will do better, even grow. LG is right until he's wrong, you're wrong until you're right. Vi was wrong on the USD run, but all the Austrians have been wrong -- so far. Yet most people agree that in the right circumstances a USD run is still possible, and even more agree on continued USD decline. By most accounts, including Mandelbrot, Volcker, Roubini, Soros and many others the financial system hasn't been properly repaired, and therein lies more risk. Maybe a major default like Japan will be the trigger for a second crash that's unstoppable. Who knows? Saying the fundamentals will win is like saying "The market is always right." Of course it is --- but only when it stops being wrong. The only ones who "got it" over the last 6 months were those who said fundamentals didn't matter in this environment: they made +20%. They get the bragging rights. They called it. Jim