To: Michael Tenney who wrote (3446 ) 11/1/1997 10:16:00 AM From: Craig Richards Respond to of 4571
Vectorvest it tells me DDIM has a value of$59.80. I hope you're not investing in DDIM based on the Vectorvest evaluation. Vectorvest does an automatic evaluation based on factors such as past performance as well as analyst estimates for future earnings. It is no substitute for your own clear headed thinking. I don't think the Vectorvest evaluation takes into account the fact that DDIM is a Y2K company, so that the core of its current business will go away within a few years. That will cause revenues and earnings decreases, which will give DDIM a much, much lower valuation. Also, all the analyst estimates include very aggressive projections for the sales of the Ardes2K CD. This is a very high margin product for DDIM, and if it is as successful as the analysts project, it will in fact drive DDIM's earnings growth to the amazing levels projected. Some of the reasons that I don't expect Ardes2K sales to meet projections include: 1) Ardes2K is a product for the Y2K remediation life cycle. Since the president of DDIM, Larry Martin, says all Y2K work must be completed in 1998 to allow enough time for testing, that means it is already too late to be ramping up a Y2K project. However, Ardes2K will have the most benefit if purchased at the start of a Y2K project. Looks like the time window for this product is quickly closing. 2) Ardes2K was released a number of times, according to past press releases. Apparently they had trouble selling it at the beginning. Except for sales to Unisys (which are probably deeply discounted), Ardes2K sales so far have not lived up to expectations. 3) Ardes2K development team was layed off recently. Why would a company lay off the entire development team of its most important product? (Look at seattletimes.com for this story, as well as a Larry Martin quote on why it's no big deal: "As the company grows, you need to change the people." I guess this attitude will be a big motivator for the new Ardes2K team, as well as DDIM's other remaining employees as they work hard to create those anticipated record earnings.) 4) When Ardes2K was first released, DDIM's COO (who has since left the company), said the purpose of the Ardes2K CD was to increase awareness of DDIM and drive consulting sales. It sounded like he didn't have a lot of confidence in the analyst's overblown estimates either. (Check out sfgate.com for this quote.)