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To: wildandwonderful who wrote (125857)11/22/2009 4:03:31 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 206334
 
wild, yes, that's the right formula.

Robry's data should only be used for a "first guess" since its only a rough estimate. "Actual" data is put out by the EIA, see eia.doe.gov , but the problem with their data is that they can't seem to get it out until something like 2 months after the month in question. It amazes me that in today's internet age, they still can't tell us what last month's stats were until 2 months after the month has ended, but that is what we are stuck with. And that's why I still end up using Robry's data since even a rough guess of today's data is better than accurate 2 month old data sometimes.

I could understand your bearishness based on what has been happening recently but we still have the whole winter ahead of us and seasonal weather forecasting is often inaccurate, so IMO the jury is still out on natty. But if this warmer than normal trend extends into January then I could see your point.