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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (1499)	11/1/1997 10:23:00 AM
From: John Dally	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5676

Mohan et al, A market correction may take more time than it took in 1987. In 1987 there was extensive use of "portfolio insurance," whereby portfolio managers sold futures as the market dropped, according to some predetermined plan. The arbitrageur who sold the future would then sell the underlying basket of stocks to hedge his position, thereby driving stock prices down further. Thus, the market may have artificially corrected in a single day, rather than more gradually, as it might have if driven by human emotion alone. Historically, most corrections have played out over years. Even the 1929 correction, though initially severe, didn't bottom until 3 years later. lowrisk.com There may be enough "hot money" circulating the globe, that whenever a market drops a significant amount, someone will speculate on a bounce. Today, the behavior of the collapsing Asian markets may serve as a better model for a market correction. Malaysia WEB: tscn.com Singapore WEB: tscn.com John.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (1499)	11/6/1997 8:50:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5676

Moahn, THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT (as the new era saying goes) <<Launch control Due to unstable weather conditions crash off was postpond to next week. Take your time. Do whatever is necessary. This time I don't want to hear "Houston, we have a problem!>> 1. T.A. followers all agree the market doesn't look good. From candlesticks to moving avareges, it all looks negative, not to mention we've completed Elliott's abc correction up and about to embark on the 3 down, the 1 being the drop from SPX's high at 980s to 850s, and the 3 should be bigger! 2. Bears on SI survey reached new low the day after SPX peaked, and high after the big drop, remained high. Bears were not that intimidated by the sharp correction. 3. All we need is a nice drop today, below OEX 890, for confirmation. Happy crashing ATG

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (1499)	11/20/1997 10:34:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

ABOUT THE MARKET 1. The SPX support at 900 got yet another reinforcement as the market opened afterburners from 903 to 945 in no time. 2. On the OEX chart the 5 days EMA crossed 21 EMA up yesterday, creating a buy signal. 3. The OEX reached the target area I have marked for it last week (910-915) on the day specified, although not the way I thought - Mon. was very strong because of Tokyo vs. my prediction for weak Mon. and strong Tue and Thu. (My prediction is on reply #7939 on your thread) 4. Today and tomorrow the market is facing a decision point. A pullback from current (OEX 914) level will probably occure toorrow anyway, but the question is how steep it would be. The possible paths are: a. Another down leg, breaking at last SPX 900 support. b. Final run to dow 9200+ late Jan-mid Feb '98 and Millennium crash. 5. The market would indicate the course it wants to take. A high today of close to OEX 920 (my guess 917) and a pull back tomorrow to intraday ~909 would indicate a stong market. A high today of ~915 and low tomorrow of under 900 would indicate a weak market. 6. The bullish indicators of last week would turn bearish only after the OEX would stay below 900 for a day or two. ATG