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Biotech / Medical : Aviron -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (174)	11/1/1997 4:27:00 PM
From: SG	Respond to of 645

You have more detailed info than I do, Vector, but I see it the way you do. I want toown this stock and see little downside. thanks.

To: Vector1 who wrote (174)	11/2/1997 8:47:00 AM
From: Don W Stone	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 645

Vectori, Thanks , for a very informative and excellent post. Haolin, I get the impression that you are a "trader" and have found it works for you I guess and therefore want everyone else to see it that way. Over the long term I failed miserably at taking a trading position in stocks. SG is a along term investor, I would assume, as am I. Based on what Vectori posted it will be a year or more before AVIR has a marketable product. Till than I would assume the stock will be essentially event driven, as is the case with most developement stage companies.. Unlike earnings which come up quarterly , the timing of events or for that matter, even foreseeing an event, is abit more difficult. They don't happen on a preannounced date. That to me spells very high risk for the trader. On the other hand the long term investor can take an initial position and accumulate, often on weakness, and have a whole year to build a very sound position. As to whether the stock is hi or low today is anybodies guess IMO,( the recent secondary did go off at $27). With no news for awhile it could go lower, but this stock already has a Wall Street following, sitting ready to prop it up so how low will be low ( A really bad market could take it to the teens as they just did, perhaps). But than I think we'll see news pretty regularly out of this company for the next year or so. Just to much going on. I do feel that sometime in 1999 AVIR just could be a lot higher, given that all the events go off as scheduled. :-} Trading AVIR successfully is going to take alot of guts and luck, ,IMO.

To: Vector1 who wrote (174)	11/2/1997 11:06:00 AM
From: Haolin Ni	Respond to of 645

V1, I don't want give you another excuse you post here after AVIR run to $30, you said I drive you and your friends out, but your post just repeat the press release of AVIR. Would those events bring AVIR any earnings for AVIR???? I am not warry some of your friends will luanch another round personal attack on me but reality confirmed that my reasoning was right even though AVIR did run up to over $30 it fall down since because it has no earning to support its overvalued price. It is still overvalued even now. Don't you think it is better to buy and hold INTC, CREAF or QNTM at present level than hold AVIR? I belive that it is much better to buy LGND (a biotech stock) at present price than AVIR. Do you want investors to read your model portfolio? Your model portfolio has too many dogs, such as CYTO and AVIR. It is not good to buy speculation stocks like AVIR but buy some solid tech stocks at cheap price. Some of the speculation stocks will bring you good profit but some of them will kill you. One thing I am sure that AVIR will has no earning in years. It is good to trade AVIR like me did but buy and hold AVIR will bring you no profit for quiyte while. Good luck!