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To: Joseph K. Medici who wrote (159)11/1/1997 12:59:00 PM
From: Terry MaynardRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
You may want to estimate what you think the value of the stock is or should be. How? Look at the average PE for the last three to five years or the average ROE for the same period. Compare the current PE with that of the industry. Compare the current price of the stock with its 52 week and 5 year highs and low. ... There are many measures to look at. Pick a few that make the most sense for a particular stock. When the give over- or under- bought signals, they make your moves.

Obviously, this is an art and that is why I like the Burke approuch because it can lesson the risk of being right on the turning point of the market.

Hope this helps ... only my opinion.

Terry



To: Joseph K. Medici who wrote (159)11/2/1997 5:16:00 AM
From: Dale BakerRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 118717
 
I probably should have phrased the question more specifically: if you hold a stock which has risen a bit but not to your target, and you see a sudden downturn coming either in that stock or the general market, your choices are:

--Set a stop-loss and accept getting stopped out
--Sell on the first indication of trouble and look to buy in again later (i.e. cheaper)
--Ride it out because you believe the stock must inevitably reach fair value and setbacks along the way are to be expected

Fundamental investors will tell you that option number three will produce the most profits over the time; none of us are smart enough to time every market top or chart top in a single company. Stop-loss orders are a good way to protect against mistaken judgment (what, I made a mistake? Never!) about a company's value, and to preserve your capital over the long term.

Still, I look at some new companies I bought after the crash and dream about having bought them late on the first day of the big boom. Unfortunately "late in the day" in New York is now 1AM in Mauritius and my wife would not take kindly to me watching the tape that late.

The 1/3-1/3-1/3 approach may also work better over time. I am concerned about a)paying lots of commissions on relatively small $$ investments and b)missing out on big gainers whose value I underestimated. NSPK is an example; I would have aimed for a 50% gain but I held on during the rally for 70%. Even then I missed the top by two points.

This issue deserves a lot more discussion. Have at it, boys and girls.

Good luck to all this week.