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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (58383)	11/26/2009 4:25:29 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Respond to of 217683

Thank you, that 3am london crap had me worried- glad our turkey days are seperated-ng

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (58383)	11/26/2009 5:59:51 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217683

most excellent run, against the wind, through the mud, faced with pouring rain the london boyz must be punished, made into refugees, exiled to hong kong, and transformed into more truthful gold traders, and pay me rent :0) on unrelated matter, just in in-tray · Investors should continue to give the upside the benefit of the doubt into year end. Still there is a definite end-of-year feel about current stock markets. The impression gained is that many absolute-return investors have achieved results deemed satisfactory for the year and have sought to lock in their gains. · The record US aggregate corporate cash flows means the corporate sector is far more likely to start borrowing again than still hard pressed American consumers. Still if companies certainly have the means to borrow it is less likely to be for capital spending. Much more likely is a renewed merger and acquisition cycle or the resumption of share buybacks. · GREED & fear is still of the view that the leveraged nature of the America consumer, combined with the lack of income growth and the still dismal employment market, remain formidable obstacles for a real releveraging cycle to take place in the US. · There is a stark difference in America between the condition of big companies and those of small companies which appear to be having a much tougher time. The current divergence, in terms of jobs lost, between the two sets of official US employment data suggests that the recent improvement has been concentrated in larger firms only and that smaller businesses remain exceptionally weak. · The same pressure on the unlisted and micro corporate sector is also suggested by the fact that the improvement in US corporate profitability is heavily skewed towards the government protected, or rather government underwritten, financial sector. · In GREED & fear’s view the consumption trend will remain highly vulnerable the moment stimulus measures are withdrawn. The longer term risk in the US is that temporary hiring takes off as a secular phenomenon as companies seek to adapt to a more deflationary world where they are reluctant to take on all the related costs associated with full time employees. · The latest GDP data from Japan has served as a grim reminder of the intensifying deflationary trend there. The level of Japan’s nominal GDP is now below the previous low reached in 1Q03. This explains why the Japanese stock market has been such a horror story. It also explains why the Federal Reserve is so anxious to prevent deflation. Once the deflationary psychology sets in it is hard to climb out of it. · The best outcome for the Japanese stock market would be if GREED & fear is wrong and America achieves a normal recovery. Then US interest rates would normalise and the dollar would rally sharply against the yen, creating a major buying opportunity in Japanese exporters in an improving cyclical environment. Still that is not the base case here. · GREED & fear’s own Japan portfolio will continue to be heavily skewed towards emerging market plays. This seems the only sensible strategy given that Asia and emerging markets remain by far the best story globally. · There remains a lot of nervousness about imminent Chinese tightening measures. GREED & fear’s view remains that such concerns are overdone. It remains unlikely in the extreme that the PRC is really going to tighten aggressively its policy towards the residential property market. For this sector provides the best hope for generating a private sector investment cycle that will allow China to reach its 8% growth target in 2010 without massive reliance on public sector fixed asset investment. · GREED & fear continues to believe that Asia is set up for an asset bubble centred on China if US monetary stays easy for as long as is anticipated here. But this asset bubble comes later, not now. Long term investors should use pull backs in China stocks caused by current tightening concerns to add to positions. The official drive to get Chinese banks to increase their capital is driven by a desire to ensure the banks have the means to fund loan growth. · Wednesday’s 5% devaluation of the Vietnamese dong, prompted by the decline in foreign exchange reserves defending the exchange rate peg, may well not be enough given that Vietnam is suffering from the hangover from a credit boom. But there is no risk of currency contagion for the rest of Asia from the Vietnamese dong. Rather most of the region faces the opposite problem, namely hot money inflows and related asset bubble risks. · Still, to the extent that the dong has now become more competitive from an export standpoint, this will reconfirm existing prejudices among Asian central bankers and policy makers to resist currency appreciation. The longer that policy stance persists, most particularly in China, the more likely becomes an asset bubble in the region! CLSA CLEAN & GREEN: Please consider our environment before printing this email. The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and Regulatory Notices These can be viewed at clsa.com or sent to you upon request.

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (58383)	11/28/2009 6:41:57 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217683

just in in-tray, about the new sovereign and its second, third, or eigth coming ... who is keeping score ;0) footnote: the gold rebellion is continuing to gain faithful strength. recommendation: keepbuyingrealgold player 1: a Greek shipowner I know bought usd 80 mio worth of physical gold when it was 700 ounze. People who say gold is in a bubble simply don't understand what is going on. it has nothing to do with USD depreciation. Everybody wants gold because there isn't enough physical, and because there is so much fear. Marc Faber is talking about war. If that really happens gold in Singapore my safe is much better than real estate in Shanghai. In fact I am thinking about selling one of my 6 mio dollar apartments in Shanghai to convert them into physical gold. There is huge inflation in china - I don't care the rest of the world goes into deflation but they don't decide prices - China does... player 2: I think it is semantics as we are all buyers. Gold is the larger bubble in a system driven by bubbles. That is how capitalism is working at moment and perhaps always. The variant is that it is also old money coming back to replace fiat money. But there are bubbles in money and this has been transferred to gold. Someone noted that gold is getting “re-rated” as money again. This is exactly right. And while it reflates back to equate with cash machines its bubble is bigger than the bubble flation by banks. I bot lots of gold – pandas, nuggets, American eagles, bars, maple leafs, swiss coins, german commemorative coin for Bismark, gold shares, platinum, CAD, etc… But I will not be more religious about it than good collection cigars, and properties, swiss chocolate, etc as stores of relative value… player tj: gold is getting re-rated, yes and true, not as money, but as better than money gold is up-rated as monetary parachute, capital freedom, surplus capital redempetion, and excess savings salvation under the dire circumstances, the re-rating is more than justified, and in and of itself, does not constitute a bubble, but as antidote to bubble at some dire juncture of the progressively enveloping monetary black hole implosion, gold will get a further and even more fruitful re-rate, not as antidote to anything or salvation from anything else, but as a religion that is when i will unload in earnest, with religious fervor player 2: Jay – meet xxx … xxx meet Jay. Gold is getting re-rated as money…during the re-rating period it is better than money. After it may be less as well. That is nature of volatility. But gold helps us to see true volatility. Looking at ships over 40 yrs in gold terms we see a truer volatility of prices. Looking at assets and markets in dollar terms is a joke and another gimmick by the establishment On the same page. But let’s keep objectivity here too! player 2: my shipbroking partner in Germany (66 years) bought same amount of physical gold as I did - I just found out yesterday by accident. He is definitely "old money". A brilliant broker but not necessarily very investment-minded, but he knows that there is more paper than physical... But some of my young professional investor friends in Singapore (including my own stock broker) remains skeptical about gold. So instinct of old money is way better than the "educated" investing professionals. The drop of 4.7% of gold price against Dubai news was totally irrelational - if the world becomes more volatile the value of gold shall go up, not down. The Nationalist party - who lost the war to the communists due to run-away inflation - paid physical gold in the final days of 1949 because their listed men refused to die for anything less than physical gold. Didn't really have the time to "buy at the dip" as price already recovered back to 1175 within a couple of hours - but I did got a lot of Zijin at hkg$ 8 (dropped from 9). But it just shows how determined buyers are and how little physical gold is around. After Dubai I am even more convinced that building up physical is the way to go. Will buy even at 1175 on Monday.