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Gold/Mining/Energy : American International Petroleum Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Laserbones who wrote (4546)	11/1/1997 3:59:00 PM
From: MARIO PASQUA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11888

<< I am optimistic about aipn, but it is individuals such as yourself that will do the most damage in terms of the stocks direction.>> Greg, I'm still laughing, Wow! Now I' I'm really confused. <;-( You write the 10 doom II commandments on "why" I shouldn't invest in this stock. Then to cover yourself you are optimistic about AIPN. So which is it? Where should I put my chips RED, BACK? Hmmm.. I think I understand where you come from. With you it is a win..win situation. Great if you're wrong...greater if you're right. I doubt very much that you own any AIPN shares. Yes I believe that you did owned some shares at one time. I also believe that you bailed out maybe at $ 1.50 and now you are kicking yourself from rage.

To: Laserbones who wrote (4546)	11/1/1997 5:02:00 PM
From: bargainman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11888

Mario, Greg. How about a truce? Greg, I'd like to offer a "wishful long's" response to your 10 points on AIPN. Every single thing you say is true, and not one presents a reason to sell at current prices. It's a question of spin, I guess. <<1) There is absolutely zero proof that aipn has proven commercial quantities of oil in their concession.>> That's why they call it "potential" and price at .50 cents to $1 a bbl of estimated reserves. However, between Huddleston and Wavetech and other educated estimators, as well as the location of the concession relative to proven structures, there is a high probability that some quantity of oil is down there. You can take the most pessimistic view of "zero proof," which would be narrowly correct, or you can deduce from a body of existing information that you have taken a reasonable risk. The "risk adjusted" speculative price was pegged by two analysists at around $10 per share. <<2) Aipn did indicate that they were in the "talk" stage with a potential partner.>> True <<3) Aipn never indicated that this partner was a major oil company.>> Also true. The question is whether AIPC goes for a minimal selloff that raises just enough cash to keep going and perhaps sink a few test wells and retains a larger percentage of the concession. Or, as many of us hope, sells at least half the concession to a major as part of a JV partnership deal and retains a percentage. <<4) Aipn does have cash flow problems. Their financials are, of course, public information.>> True. All information about AIPN cash flow problems is known and has been widely discussed on this and AOL thread. <<5) The concession is landlocked and real infrastructure will be needed to get any discovered oil to market.>> True. Another good reason to partner with a major. But with so many big, new players coming into the region opportunities will present themselves for pipeline sharing deals. This is also where the US will have a growing stake (as well as demand from Big Oil) to help the regional stabilize politically and economically so that unimpeded cross-border transshipment of oil is in everyone's best interests. But clearly this is a significant issue that affects not just AIPN but all players in the region. It is also another reason why AIPN needs to lock in some cash gains soon from selling a big piece of the concession to a major co. before transport problems become better defined. <<6) Aipn does not have the pockets to develop any part of their concession.>> True. But this is a redundant point related to the earlier noted need for a JV partner with deep pockets and a deal that puts cash in AIPN and shareholder coffers. <<7) Aipn has held large concessions in other countries which resulted in nothing in terms of JVs, producing wells, etc.>> So have a lot of companies. This just happens to be the Mother of all Deals for this little company. I don't care what they did before. I care that somehow they maneuvered themselves into a position to reap potentially big bucks. The only way I can see that this thing could totally collapse is if somebody can prove that the whole story is a fraud. There is no concession. There are no Kazakh partners. The Kazakhstan government is participating in a massive scheme with AIPN officers to defraud shareholders. Etc. Etc. Rueters, NYT, WSJ, AP all let themselves be suckered by slick P.R. guys. At some point you have to say, yes there is something there and make your own decision about what level of risk you want to take and what the stock is worth on any given day. <<8) As of November 1, 1997, there is no evidence of any kind that Aipn will trade above its current range.>> This is the most ridiculous of your pronuciamentos. As of 6:30 a.m. EDT, Oct. 27, "there was no evidence of any kind" that the Dow would shed 550 points in a single day. We have all held stocks that have disappointed us or pleasantly surprised us on any given day. Anyone who claims they can predict where AIPN or ANY stock will be tomorrow, Friday or on Xmas Day is full of it. <<9) The short interest in this co is extremely low. Shorts are not paying much attention to this stock.>> I'm not sure what the current numbers are on shorting, but as we have seen before that can change quickly. Seems to me the lack of short interest indicates belief that the price: 1) won't be dropping below current levels; and, 2) Shorts fear a sudden upward explosion in price could hand them their jock straps at any moment. <<10)This is a story stock with speculation and hype fueling continued interest. But that interest is dropping as proven by the volume drop off.>> True. That's why we look forward to news.