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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (58580)	12/2/2009 7:59:50 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217700

<<some bubbly>> well deserved. i am now elevating gold to its proper place on the steps of asset class curiosity commodity cash monetary metal political metal righteous metal of eternal faith, or scripture metal the scripture metal (doesn't matter which scripture one happens to be partial to) tests our faith, and rewards for same the scripture nature has something to do (i am unable to formulate a cohesive paragraph on the subject as yet because i am not yet worthy) with how the few faithful are rewarded at the cost of the many unwashed :0) now i must think about a champagne bath, to be triggered by what gold pricing, venue, what brand, and ... oh, details details so many wonderful details

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (58580)	12/3/2009 12:14:04 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217700

lunch break gold reality check asia trading tapped 1,225 message to ceiling price: coming through, make way, then get lost, too easy; next time dig a real moat in the quick sand ;0)

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (58580)	12/3/2009 9:35:22 PM
From: TobagoJack	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217700

just in in-tray Player 1: Crude Oil looks as if it is running out of steam as well. Looks like we need a resolution to either the upside or downside by the end of the month... Everyone's "hoping" that the wheels don't fall off between now and year end. So does that mean that it does crack before the end of the year? Or that everyone comes out selling hard in January? Maybe its just me, but it seems the risk/reward trade here is to short gold, short oil, short stocks, long US Dollar. Given the risk that I'm wrong, perhaps the best way to play it is via puts / calls where vol might be priced cheaply.... Player 2: major cycle turn in early January, anyway. my guess is it will be a high. Player 1: It seems that gold is the only subject that everyone talks about nowadays.. I get nervous when markets go parabolic in a short period of time. Not arguing the longer term, but we could get a big shakeout to the downside when /if the weak hands all head for the door at the same time. Buying some insurance against that scenario isn't expensive at the present, so I'm planning to buy some insurance on my insurance.. <g> - Gold is merely insurance against governments doing stupid things (i.e. massive budget deficits and money printing). Player 2: well, the gold bull market couldn't be kept a secret forever. remember the final few months of the Nasdaq bubble? everybody from hairdressers to taxi drivers was giving out stock tips, often unprompted. from the moment this began, the market advanced another 80% or so. we are very far from that point - the public is only beginning to notice this market now (recall that a few months ago several prominent media outlets were actually warning people away from the gold market - the WSJ titled: 'why gold is still a lousy investment'). that said, i agree that at some point there will be a sharp correction of the recent move up. Such relentless parabolic rises are always corrected. my guess is when Paulson's fund is launched we'll get an intermediate term top, or maybe shortly thereafter. Player 3: Full Goldman 2010 commodities report zerohedge.com [comments by tj: remembering that goldman had issued an "oil will do 200" target not so long ago, before they laid waste to lehman and after they tee-ed up the hong kong accumulator blebs to take the other side of their true trade, feeding to the market gods the greedy, slow witted, weak, and aged, i would caution all on goldman's gold to 1450 call, because, to quote goldman, they may well be "doing god's work" again, seeing how they missed a few souls the first time around, and looking for bonus money for fiscal year 2010] Player 1: And if Bernanke doesn't get re-confirmed? Does the market react? And how? Bullish or bearish? Who would Obama then nominate? Larry Summers? If Summers, it might be possible that Bernanke is replaced with someone worse than himself. Rest assured, there could be no more arrogant personality in the Fed Chair than Summers. HE KNOWS how to adjust interest rates just right..