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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (14526)	12/3/2009 12:27:21 AM
From: The Vet	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86356

Climate Models May Underestimate Warming mindmeld, doesn't it worry you that these computer models can produce such convincing predictions, when similar models can't accurately predict the weather a few days in advance? Climate, after all is just a weather averaged over a period, so if they cannot reliably forecast the short term, why should a long term forecast (which is just a sum of the short terms) be any more accurate? Even statistical models for conditions that are largely under the control of man, like financial conditions, budgets, markets etc. are notoriously inaccurate, and yet you accept a far more variable set of incomplete data and inputs and then implicitly accept the result. As one who has a knowledge of statistics, you may have heard of the survey done in the 1950's which examined a a number of health and lifestyle issues in order to determine which factors predisposed the sample selected to heart disease and which factors seemed to be protective. In the final analysis, one factor stood out as highly significant. A very high proportion of the participants who answered "yes" to this question had a far lower incidence of heart disease. The question was something like "Do you have and use an outside toilet"..... As a result of this statistically significant findings I wonder why the surgeon general didn't immediately require that all inside plumbing be labeled with a warning " Use of this WC may predispose you to dying of heart disease".. I rest my case on correlation and causation...