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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (8896)	11/1/1997 9:36:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill I am in full agreement with you! After reading the articles of Yardeny and Marthy Zweig in Barrons of this week it is even more worrisome to see the cool attitude and even if cautios the dismissal of the sharp drop of the stock markets all over the world. My perception is that those articles will lend some assurance to many investor and will validate a "sucker rally". On the other hand we have a quite negative Business Week issue, so I can not make sense of the full picture, for the time beeing. Will see what next week will bring. Happy trading Haim

To: William H Huebl who wrote (8896)	11/1/1997 9:36:00 PM
From: Ed Pittman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill What you have stated is my plan B. Plan a is I'm in puts now over the weekend..I'm looking for some event..to take this market down on Monday. If I don't get that move down early..I sell out of my positon and re enter on that failing rally you are talking about...I don't think its over by a long shot. Did you see the premium in the puts on the oex...If you go out of the money by 110 points they still want $ 6+ for them.. If you go out of the money on the calls the same.its 5/16..That's why I had to buy puts on stocks..If they pull the switch and take it up on Monday, those puts are going to get cheaper.. I have a change in trend in the Dec. S&P on Nov. 18.. Good luck with your trades. Ed

To: William H Huebl who wrote (8896)	11/1/1997 10:01:00 PM
From: White Shoes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, I care I care I care. I agree with you, it's sort of spooky how calm everyone seems. Thursday's selling just a warmup for Monday? That's a very possible scenario. Am adopting a "wait and see" attitude to all this. If crash comes earlier than expected so much the better. Perhaps another 10% down might be the end of this if it is to be just a correction. Because I follow certain stocks that I consider to be good values + fast growth, I won't worry too much about the consequences of a prolonged bear market. If these stocks drop another 10% I will start picking them up (limited downside IMO, book value, growth rates, & all that). I am in a lot of cash and so on right now. (And diamonds.) To the other folks on the thread, I just read where de Beers has a 1 year deal with Russian diamond producers, likely to get extended after that, to have these diamonds sold through de Beers' Central Selling Organization. The Russian diamonds threat to the de Beers cartel is dead. By the way, here in Canada Thanksgiving has already happened. Well see you Monday. Keep watching that ticker (sounds ominous doesn't it).

To: William H Huebl who wrote (8896)	11/1/1997 10:52:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill: there appear to be other reasons people stopped posting to the thread.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (8896)	11/1/1997 10:57:00 PM
From: Elllk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill On Friday afternoon CNBC was talking about how exhausted the traders were and anxious to get out for the weekend. I imagine same was true for that victorious (mythical) little guy who saved the week and even the SI BK posters. This is just the kind of lull the Big Kahuna lurks for. Larry

To: William H Huebl who wrote (8896)	11/1/1997 11:09:00 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

I've been trying not to post to increase the signal to noise ratio <g> I fear worldwide recession, and thus am buying stocks to do my part in preventing one. <g> Besides, this seems a better chance to get some international exposure at bargain basement prices. Good thing I'm a bit slow acting on the pundit's latest advice. <g> Iraq is a nonevent, other than it worries me that one american would order other americans to put themselves at risk in Iraq. Seems they want to demonstrate some soveriegnity over there, so why not let them. It worries me that the perception of some 'Super Rich' people are taking out developing nations (currently Latin America) one at a time for profit via currency speculation. The potential backlash on developed nations (read: us) could be severe. I am reminded of an Irish youth who confided to me in Netherlands that 'once the European Union was completed, they'd kick America's but!'. But then its November now; time to give thanks and not time to worry.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (8896)	11/2/1997 8:12:00 AM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill. To add to your scenario. This is based on gut feeling and little analysis. I am waiting for a clean drop through 7,000 to confirm that we are in a bear market. 6,500 or 6,700 on the Dow would confirm that. If this happens, the end of November or early December would be a nice time for the end of the first leg down of the bear market. Mid to late December would be a nice time for the first rally in a bear market. That rally would take us to about 7,700 or so. Then a subsequent drop down below this November or December low would occur in the Spring. And so on . . . If we do not get that clean drop through 7,000 . . . . However, if the bear is confirmed here, I believe we are in for the "Mother" of all bear markets.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (8896)	11/2/1997 10:46:00 AM
From: R. Bond	Respond to of 94695

Bill, I monitor several other threads and I am constantly altering the mix. Let me assure you that plenty of people on S.I. are worried about the market and stating their reasons here; be them tech, fundamental, historical, or psychologically based. Good luck to you, Bond

To: William H Huebl who wrote (8896)	11/2/1997 3:56:00 PM
From: Joss	Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill, <<Now, nada! Only a couple of people including you and I are concerned! THAT'S WHAT IS BUGGING ME!!!! Have we gone back to "... WHO CARES???" Especially NOW? >> I do not know about other threaders, but I had Sat. obligations. I am usually an optimist-realist. That is, I am optimistic on the long haul but recognize conditions as they develop. I have been bearish and an avid reader of this thread for some months. To date, I have not experienced any apprensive feelings. I simply felt that the coming down events were opportunities from which I could profit. For the past week I have been bombarded by alleged experts, admitted neophites and the spectrum in-between, telling me that all is well and now is the time to buy. 1 exception: my father who has been a bull since the early 1950's is selling, no doubt due to my recent doom and gloom.<grin> The majority of people I talk to lately, have "financial advisors". These "FA's" I will call them, have taken this recent set of events to convince the general public that "buy on the dips" is the way to go under any and all conditions. When I ask the age of thier FA, I get UNDER 40 95% of the time. So in the professional life of their FA, there has never been a prolonged Bear Market. I do not know what kind of indicator that my personal discomfort will turn out to be...but, I am buying more long term puts (6 months or more) and selling short. I have only 2 longs left....and they are chash laden, under valued and I have the stops up tight on those. Steve