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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AlienTech who wrote (10227)	11/1/1997 11:46:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Alien Tech, amazing! I had some - not all - of the thoughts you have posted. And I dismissed my thoughts as paranoid. You and I don't publish our opinions in the media. The guys that do, or who get quoted, are the investment pros. So, besides SI, that's all the opinions we get to read and hear. These guys NEED volatility, so they can sell near the highs and buy near the lows and then do it over again. So some of those who didn't buy Monday (because the market was shut down), and didn't expect such a strong reversal on Tuesday (so they didn't buy again), want another dip. I saw one pro quoted as saying there was NOT ENOUGH FEAR among investors. I think some - not all - of this is orchestrated. You and I don't make public opinion, but the institutions DO influence it. Nobody here even mentioned foreign stock markets a month ago. And now everybody monitors the HK market at night. Why should we mimic the HK market, with all the positives you listed for the US. Yeah, the big boys aren't finished buying! GM BTW, Vector Vest values the DJIA at about 8700 now. If you believe that, then the DOW is NOT overvalued. Even if company fundamentals stay the same, the value of the 30 DJIA stocks combined can increase if inflation and interest rates decrease.

To: AlienTech who wrote (10227)	11/2/1997 6:49:00 AM
From: Steve Byers	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

it always frightens me when I hear that "everything is great...and the only problem is XXXXXX", other than that, its a miracle... don't be lulled... it IS possible that the labor market continues to tighten here and wage increases begin to scare the bond vigilantes... entirely possible... and with January earnings reports, you COULD have an earnings slowdown, with or without asia... and you could have disruption with a conflict in the mideast... and you could have a sudden dropoff in pc sales at the same time brazil hits the same skids asia has... softening latin america... and europe... at which point the US would ABSOLUTELY be entreenched in a bear market...and while I dont expect this in the next quarter or two... or even at all in 98... it nonetheless represents a realm of possibilities which is quite contrary to "everything is great in the US"... and a little conservatism and scepticism is smart when you are dealing with something as precious as your wealth accumulation... don't let the scepticism take over, but dont be happily complacent in "Wonderland" either... this ain't Kansas Dorothy... be that as it may, I'm long and concentrated, but am not margined (yet) and have money on the side to put in later... good luck