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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (25239)	12/5/2009 9:49:16 AM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Respond to of 71456

It's fine, I appreciate your view, and I agree that supply of natural gas in the United States is plentiful. However, what I don't agree with is that this fact necessarily means lower NG prices forever in dollar terms. Last year NG prices traded at an all time high before collapsing to as low as high $2-s this year. What this means is that NG prices will be lower than they otherwise would be. And indeed, as NG hit a high last year, it was still much lower than crude in terms of price per BTU.

To: Tommaso who wrote (25239)	12/5/2009 10:46:51 AM
From: Horgad	1 Recommendation Respond to of 71456

Everybody knows by now about the oversupply problem and the new technology, but everything has a bottom. NG is not going to 0. So the question is where is the bottom? The answer to that question is debatable, but in my screwed up head the new technology and current oversupply will eventually create buying opportunities as it shakes the market. So instead of running away from the fire, I am running towards it with full knowledge of the risks. So why exactly does that bother you?

To: Tommaso who wrote (25239)	12/5/2009 10:59:31 AM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Respond to of 71456

The problem I am having with Natural Gas is that the market is quite difficult. More supposedly savvy traders blew up in Natural Gas than in any other commodity - at least, I somehow have this view, perhaps, not supported factually, Enron and Amaranth being prime examples. Which is why, accepting that I am amateurish compared to the pros, I am very careful with that market, and not touching it in any substantial way. So far my foray into it proved to be unsuccessful. I am also quite skeptical about views on that market, at least, until my own understanding of it improves. There will certainly be time when NG prices move up as supply comes down due to extremely low price, but timing that event is a hard exercise.

To: Tommaso who wrote (25239)	12/6/2009 2:12:49 AM
From: RJA_	3 Recommendations Respond to of 71456

>>The fracturing technology has now spread to much larger formations and production has greatly increased. >>This is not a "theory" of mine. I have been trying to draw attention to facts. Your efforts are not in vain. I appreciate them (for what its worth). Please stick around... I am sure Vi does also. RJA

To: Tommaso who wrote (25239)	12/7/2009 6:34:16 AM
From: axial	4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

Nothing we say on these threads really matters any more than a conversation. At times, we all make the mistake of thinking we influence others, and maybe now and then, we do. Mostly we don't. The biggest influence is that one becomes aware of how many people think differently, don't like their ideas challenged, and aren't prepared to embrace new thinking. Being right doesn't matter: many people actually resent it ... and all the bits and bytes that look immortal on the monitor will be forgotten in days, sometimes hours. There's a reason they call current thinking "conventional wisdom". Exceptional thinking is a blend of common sense, rational thought and deep understanding given to few, and recognized by fewer still. You put it out there, and if someone can understand what you're saying, good. If not too bad, but that doesn't mean you're wrong. Not that it matters, because being right doesn't get you anything but profit; that may have to be your only consolation. Some want the flowers and the applause. They're out there opinionating on forums and blogs, and not one in 1,000,000 gets it right. Others seek what wisdom they can find. They say their piece, make their moves, and if people don't get it who cares? Take the money and run. The online world is for information, not validation. Jim