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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (71486)	12/7/2009 2:43:41 AM
From: marcos	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

They're probably cherry-picking the 850 top from jan '80, which was the final parabolic run from around 400 in nov '79, didn't last long, only a few days above 700, i think '80 averaged out at 600 for the year, '79 had been around 400 Also they may have been sucked in by some bank's advertising, quoting a rate based on 250k minimum balance or something There was a trend down from that top to the year 2000, which had avg price of around 265-270 if memory serves ... maybe 280 max, anyway the monthly avg low came that year in the 260s ... now in november we've had a monthly avg probably above 1050, no bank pays that kind of interest on chequing accounts That downtrend was clearly broken by '02 or '03, depending on how wide your crayon mark is, new trend started using '00 low, ten years is pretty near enough to call it a trend in place i should think On the fundamentals - seen any Volcker material around lately? ... me neither, nor anybody with the guts to appoint one ... there would be literal blood in the streets doing this time what he did then, and today's version wouldn't have the same material to work with - the US is no longer a creditor nation, trade is rather thoroughly turned around, the population is too spoiled now ... it's quite possible that Volcker would say today, let 'er rip, devalue because that's all we can do ... devalue against what? - against gold, of course, unless by some miracle the euros and the asians and everybody else straightens and flies right It's what Roosevelt did ... no confiscation this time, as to do that would be to admit its superiority as real money ... they'll want to let it down smoothly of course, and a 200-dollar move in five weeks is a bit much, time for a rest, especially since there are big treasuries auctions this week [by total coincidence]

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (71486)	12/7/2009 10:17:51 PM
From: RJA_	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Haim -- As with all these articles comparing gains in this vs gains in that -- depends on the beginning and end points you pick. If we start with say, 2002 and try to make that claim, well, I'll be first in line to sign up for that checking account, if you can find it <g!>. The article creates a false impression with a true headline by choosing a specific date range (and therefore data set) over all other choices available. The author of that article could find work with the Obama Democratic team in the US Senate promoting "improvements" in Medicare.