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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Win Smith who wrote (26462)	12/7/2009 11:26:13 AM
From: HPilot	1 Recommendation Respond to of 36917

The direct temperature records, which is what the Wikepedia page shows, are not disputed. Wrong, many e-mail messages dealt with jury rigging those as well. One said that it was more difficult in the last decade because it is now better watched by skeptics. We wouldn't have had a decline since 98 if it were not for the fact others caught scams with false data, data from weather stations with themometers near air conditioning condensors, steam pipes, black asphalt pavement, etc. Heaven knows how much of this was done before people were watching this.

To: Win Smith who wrote (26462)	12/7/2009 7:50:15 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36917

This is the "divergence problem". the "decline" in the tree ring data for recent years, is pretty irrelevant since direct measurements of temperature are obviously more reliable that tree ring data reconstructions The proxies do vary significantly from the direct measurements of temperature going back to 1960. The earlier divergences are unknown. This casts doubt on the usefulness of the tree ring data before direct measurements were available. Combine that with the lack of skill in the statistical methods of Mann, et al the so called "hockey stick" reconstruction of past temperatures is misleading at best. The direct temperature records, which is what the Wikepedia page shows, are not disputed. Those records are neither fabricated nor are they direct temperature records. The direct readings have been subject to may adjustments, so much so that the adjustments overshadow the resulting trend in temperatures. This also means that the use of the temperature trend in analyzing climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases is in doubt.