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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (26514)	12/7/2009 8:37:47 PM
From: Land Shark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36917

Wishful thinking on your part that this signals the end of AGW. The leveling off is due to some reductions in solar forcing - only temporary. Climate scientists have acknowledged the current laps in the warming trend due to variations in solar output (there is a cycle in solar output, not attributable to however the long term warming trend we've all been told of over the last 100 years. That's due to man made carbon emissions). Climate scientists are also warning of resumption of the warming trend when the solar output starts increasing again. In the next 10 years we'll see new records in global temperatures.

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (26514)	12/7/2009 8:41:54 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36917

So I see. Ocean surfaces have warmest summer on record, US report finds• El Niño contributed largely to rise in temperatures • Average temperatures rose to 16.9C Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 16 September 2009 21.02 BST The world's ocean surfaces had their warmest summer temperatures on record, the US national climatic data centre said today. Climate change has been steadily raising the earth's average temperature in recent decades, but climatologists expected additional warming this year and next due to the influence of El Niño. Ocean surface temperatures were the warmest for any August since record keeping began in 1880. For the June to August summer months, average ocean surface temperatures rose to 16.9C (62.5F), which is 1.04F above the 20th century average, said the report from the climate centre, which is a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The world's combined average land and ocean surface temperatures were the second warmest on record for August, and the third warmest for the summer months. "During the season, warmer-than-average temperatures engulfed much of the planet's surface," the centre said. Australia and New Zealand had their warmest August since records began. However, central Canada and the United States were the exceptions, with unusually cool temperatures. "In some areas, such as the western United States, temperatures were much cooler than average," the report said. The unusually warm summer temperatures for much of the world's oceans were due to El Niño, the periodic warming of the Pacific. If El Niño strengthens, global temperatures are likely to set new records, the report said. So far, 2009 has been the fifth warmest year on record. Some scientists have suggested that, the effects of El Niño, coupled with warming due to climate change could well make the coming decade the hottest in human history. Nasa predicted at the start of this year that 2009 and 2010 could see the setting of new global temperature records. The report also noted the continuing retreat in Arctic sea ice over the summer. Sea ice covered an average of 6.3m sq kilometres (2.42m sq miles) during August, according to the national snow and ice data centre. That was 18.4% the 1979-2000 average guardian.co.uk

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (26514)	12/9/2009 11:55:29 PM
From: Win Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36917

That's an interesting site, though in terms of the current dominant paradigm here I'm sure the data is all made up. As near as I can tell, though, Tisdale doesn't really agree with you about OHC (Ocean heat content) and greenhouse gas forcing, see bobtisdale.blogspot.com . That one is a little out of my depth. I think, though, that you're maybe not correct about the forcing needing to go into heat content somewhere; my understanding is that the heat coming in still for the most part gets radiated back out, it just shifts the radiation budget around. There is a lot of stuff going on in the radiation budget, and I don't know how much of it gets reliably measured in the aggregate. There was this nice little satellite, DSCOVR aka Triana, that seemed set to provide a rather handy set of data on that, but it got killed due to an Al Gore association.