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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tech101 who wrote (4556)	11/2/1997 2:40:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11555

Shhh . . . everyone's spreading too much positive outlook on the semis and IDTI . . . Just kidding. When the nervousness in the markets and tech stocks finally settles, maybe with a few more ups and downs, semi stocks are going to soar.

To: tech101 who wrote (4556)	11/2/1997 7:33:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11555

I found an obscure, but interesting new product area that IDTI reportedly is getting involved in. The Oct. 23 issue of Electronic Design magazin mentioned inthe "Technology Newsletter" section that Cabgridge Display Technology LTD. (http://www.cdtltd.co.uk) is ready to introduce commercial flat panel Light Emitting Polymer (LEP) products. LEPs are targeted toward portable devices, "virtual reality" headsets, and other high volume applications. Philips is one of the key licensees and backers. The article says that they are busy signing "high-information-content" licensees. "Already one such license has been granted for the development of a 2.5-in. diagonal high-resolution display for use in "virtual reality" head sets. Gostick will not name his most recent partner, but it has been identitified as Integrated Device Technology, Inc., Santa Clara, Calif." The 2.5" display sounds small but when coupled to an optical assembly can create a "vistual screen" size of up to several feet diameter! For virtual reality applications the idea is to make the experience "emmersive" - the user "stands" practically in the middle of the scene. I find tis interesting because it is on the same "wavelength" as plans by National Semi to develop small LED displays along with Three-Five Systems (symbol TFS). --------- How do you get to $300 computer systems as envisioned by NSM and others? You get the cost out of a lot of the system by doing a "systems-on-a-chip" MPU that combines the Pentium class processor with 3-D graphics and sound, memory management, system logic, etc., and you get the cost out of the other major components - the hard drive, memory, and the display. Memory and hard disk prices have plumeted so that a relatively low capacity HD, say 1 GB, is getting to be less than $100 (OEM price). You can also get a bit more cost out of memory by using a unified memory architecture similar to what Cyrix/NSM does with their MediaGX. Cyrix also uses novel hardware compression to crunch down video and other memory bandwidth. So using a hardware compression engine can make 8 MB of memory look like at least 16 MB for most applications. The one thing that hasn't bombed in price all that much are montitors and large LED displays. They are cheaper than they were a few years ago, but they still eat up $200-$400 of a system's cost. The architecture and manufacturing costs of the monitor can only be reduced by so much. Sure you can automate the assembly to some degree and most of the electronics can be gotten down to a few ICs. But still you have a significant universal power supply, a high-voltage yoke assembly, and all the alignment hassles of a large, intricate mechanical assembly. Monitor technology has been around for decades, but is still ruled by the physics of splashing electrons against a phosphor empregnated screen. Monitors have many good features including high resolutions, contrast, and brightness. They also have liabilities: they take up a lot of space, are power hogs, are inherently 2-D (monocular), the user must sit fixed in front of them, they cause eye strain, and they are expensive. "Virtual Reality" or binocular vision headsets have been used mostly for exotic applications such as military VR war games, industrial training or maintenance, or in-flight entertainment systems. Several attempts have been made to commercialize VR headset or display products for masss markets by companies including Virtual Vision, Virtual I/O, and Forte Technologies. These attempts have ended in business failure. The main obstacles to success have been the high cost of high-resolution small display technolgies. Several companies are now beggining or are near to commercialization of high resolution, video refresh displays that can be used with optics to create large virtual screens. Claims are that these will allow easy reading of fine 10 point font information and 30-60 fps refresh without ghosting. Once a mass market is created for this class of product, the costs will inevitably come down to be much less than current monitor displays while offering freedom of user movement, portability, low-power battery operation, and truer binocular 3-D vision (each eye will see a slightly offset version of the scene). This new product does not make any immediate difference for the prospects for sales and earnings - it is likely to be two or more years before a mass market is created for 3-D headsets or monitor replacements. Sony and other Japanese companies are also reported to be working on products similar to the FEP. However, the Philips/Microsoft/WebTV/IDTI vision for the future of cheap, portable web and PC 3-D virtual vision devices is exciting.