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Technology Stocks : American Power Conversion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Phillip Crone who wrote (1826)	11/2/1997 9:33:00 PM
From: trilobyte	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2574

Hi Phillip, don't you think that we have already witnessed more than a "blip"!?! After all, semi-equips are down in the range of 30-40% after reporting really good earnings. APCC reported stellar results and is down from the price prior to the day of reporting. If DELL and AMAT announcing this month have positive CC, the blip could indeed be a very short one, especially in view of CPQ's rather bullish comments and the fact valuations have already somewhat come down to Earth. For APCC to go down to 15 as you suggested in a previous message, we'd have to have a hell of a bear market... Recall that when we went to 8$ last summer, the company was hated by Wall Street and had 4 lowsy quarters in a row. Presently, APCC is a rather "liked" stock now that competition from HP has disappeared, results have been improving strongly, and new products are ramping up. Did you comment on the importance of the IBM announcement a few days ago? Furthermore, a price of 15 would put us at a p.e. of 11-12! This is unlikely in view of the fact APCC has already stated it was comfortable with 1.4-1.5$ next year. So I think the downside risk is limited to 24-25$ if things get really tough for the market. my advice: COVER YOUR SHORT before you have no choice (i.e. lose money!). Especially in view of the fact that : "You could feel the energy with the company walking around the customer support center and the factory. The place was humming and the parking lots for all of their facilities were jammed packed (al la Peter Lynch Parking lot theory). " There are many better shorts out there to risk your$$$ than APCC. As for Symmetra, I would not expect to see too many of those going through the doors at Merisel of Ingram. That's why I think news releases like the one that state IBM is going to promote the product to their customers is very important. Well, thanks mucho for the guided tour of APCC. I sort of like this company: it's been a very profitable investment to me! Trilobyte