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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arnie Doolittle who wrote (2979)	11/2/1997 1:10:00 PM
From: JF Quinnelly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10227

Arnie, I credited OJ Didit with being lucid, in contrast to our new pal who has flown in from Mars. They are similar only in stirring up the thread, and I wouldn't want to unfairly equate the substance of their posts. OJ at least had a coherent argument and inspired the bulls to defend their position. If Al has a coherent argument, I haven't spotted it yet. I'll keep looking.

To: Arnie Doolittle who wrote (2979)	11/2/1997 5:39:00 PM
From: Arnie Doolittle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10227

I was reminded today that we NXTL oldtimers have forgotten much about the reasons we own NXTL. After watching the San Diego Chargelesses get their lunch handed to them by the formerly 0-7 Cincinnati Beagles, I flipped the channel to CNBC. And, lo and behold, AirTouch had a paid promo on themselves and the wireless industry. Here's what we're buying in NXTL: 1. 20% of the U.S. population have cell phones today, making 2% of all telephone calls (98% are land lines). 2. By 2005, it's expected that 50% of the U.S. pop will have cell phones. 3. NXTL has a unique feature that commands a premium. 4. NXTL is in the process of creating a national footprint that will rival the big boys. Unlike the public accounting profession which has shrunk from the Big 8 to the Big 5 (will it eventually be the Big 1?), the wireless biz is expanding to include the likes of NXTL. None of this is news but it's fun to think about the possibilities. NXTL doesn't have to "win", ie, become number one, they just have to remain a player. I say "remain" because AirTouch, Sprint, Ma Bell et al all privately know that NXTL will be "one of them" soon. What if wireless usage increases to 10% of U.S. phone calls by 2005? Or more. And what if NXTL adds customers faster than we currently think? What if NXTL's market penetration is greater than currently estimated - even if ARPU drops to the industry average? (It won't for the forseeable future.) So what does this have to do with NXTL's price next week? Nothing. And that's exactly the point. As momentum players, short sellers and traders make pennies pushing the stock first this way and then that way, those who see the gold mine that is NXTL can buy on weakness. As long as the eyes of most are blinded to NXTL's world-class opportunity, time is on our side. From the early June breakout to Friday's close, NXTL has risen about 70%, even after the recent pullback. My original yearend target was 24 so what's not for me to like? hat do I know? I say NXTL is a buy and smart players are adding to their positions. One last thought about "long term players." I've noticed that some formerly long term players have apparently defined what long term means to them as they are no longer in NXTL. I say apparently because their prose no longer graces this thread. I wonder what those folks will say to their friends about NXTL when it hits 55. 100. And beyond. Woulda, should, coulda. But didn't. The short term players? They'll be busy chasing the latest hot commodity stock showing momentum signs and short term profit opportunities, while leaving the 10 baggers to the NXTL big picture investors. Let's see, 100 shares times $100 minus $15 basis, deduct 20% for Uncle Sam leaves what? Even if (and that's a big IF) the traders achieve the equivalent of a 10 bagger in their multi-year trading, we'll win the race. Taxes do make a difference. Arnie