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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Dawson who wrote (12150)	11/2/1997 11:09:00 AM
From: Craig Stevenson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29386

George (and all), Well, it's been a zoo of a week, consisting of a major (ongoing) ISP problem, several days out of the office, market uncertainty, ANCR price down, a family medical emergency, a server crash, etc. I hope I don't have another week like this one for a long time. Maybe some pharmacy will offer Ancor shareholder discounts on Prozac. <g> I also have a few thoughts about the developments of the week. Needless to say, I was disappointed with the overall results and especially with the subsequent conference call. The revenue numbers were good, but the loss was greater than I anticipated. Kerry certainly called that one. I am very disappointed with the way management has handled investor relations of late. Although I respect Ken's honesty about the possibility (probability) of Q4 revenues being down, I think it was unwise to remove all hope of a decent quarter. For example, if Kerry's information is correct that there is a VERY LARGE order out there, as part of a DONE DEAL, that will go through in Q4 or Q1, I think Ken should have spelled that out. At least investors would have known that if Q4 is down, Q1 could be HUGE. I think that was a mistake. I also think it was a mistake not to talk more about pending deals and/or possible deals, at least in general terms. I understand NDA, but investors got pretty close to zero during the conference call. Ancor has some responsibility to investors who have put up their own money to support the company. I don't feel as if we have gotten that support lately. (There is a difference between support and hype.) Some here have speculated that this was all designed to depress the stock price so insiders would have an attractive entry point. That's certainly possible, perhaps even likely, but I want to see the Form 4's and 144's. Based on Ken's comments, insiders should begin buying shortly, if they are going to buy, given the depressed price and the timing in relation to the conference call. If that materializes, things might change around in a hurry. The insiders know what kind of chance Ancor has long term. If they talk with their wallets, I'll be a lot more willing to talk with mine. As someone else said, this was truly a sobering experience. I also agree with another poster who said that we are VERY early, and that has been part of our downfall. The technical types on this board, like myself, see Fibre Channel becoming a major force, but it hasn't happened overnight. Another problem is that we have been following the company for a long time. Investors who are looking at Fibre Channel companies now, won't have nearly as long to wait to see whether Fibre Channel is real or not. Even by Ken Hendrickson's estimates, storage REVENUES could be significant in the second half of 1998. That's less than a year away. And I agree with another poster that long before storage revenues become significant, it is likely that contracts will be announced, and the stock price will move. I was surprised by Ken's contention that the high-performance LAN area was viewed as a growth area. I thought they would change their focus towards storage, and de-emphasize the LAN area. Evidently, there is still substantial demand for their LAN gear. George is correct that Ancor needs some cash flow from OEMs as soon as possible. An equity investment would also be better than a Reg S or Reg D. I remember back when Intel made an equity investment in MRVC. It wasn't viewed as a negative at all, in fact it was viewed as an endorsement of the company and their technology. Ancor needs that type of endorsement. I also want to publicly commend the shorts, skeptics, and technical analysts for correctly calling this one. You guys have won another battle. I just hope you haven't won the war. <g> It looks like ANCR will continue to be very speculative for a while, and isn't for the faint of heart. I'm still long, but hurting like (almost) everybody else. Craig

To: George Dawson who wrote (12150)	11/2/1997 12:13:00 PM
From: Steve Scribe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

George you write: <<The rumor about farming out their FC-AL development to LSI is unconfirmed, but they have to be working on it to stay competitive. The question is - what happens if the Silkworm implements these changes or to our horror, leapfrogs to a 2 gig switch while the OEMS are being considered?>> I think it would be great if Brocade or McData came out with a 2 gig switch. I think it would be great PR in the battle against GE for the future high performance LAN market. However, I don't think it would sell very well for a few years. I don't think many customers would want to pay a much higher price per port for the additional speed beyond 1 gig. I'm sure Ancor has looked into the issue and came to the same conclusion. Better to concentrate on what your customers really need and are willing to pay for. Regards, Steve

To: George Dawson who wrote (12150)	11/2/1997 2:27:00 PM
From: peter grossman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29386

You're smelling the same coffee I'm smelling. There's a big difference between making and losing money, and how much - - because of the position it puts you in in the race. When Kerry says OEM deals are 2-3 months off, but the company says 6-9, as you say, there are major potential consequences that are appropriately put right into the stock price. The only good news I gleaned from the quarterly report is that the liklihood of positive surprises now outweighs the liklihood of negative -- I think.