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Strategies & Market Trends : Free Cash Flow as Value Criterion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: jbe who wrote (92)11/2/1997 11:51:00 AM
From: Andrew  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 253
 
Joan,

"Why not? If you can have great cash flow with lousy free cash flow (my favorite example being the oil drillers), why can't a company with good cash flow (here I'm not saying lousy) have much better free cash flow, relative to the price you are paying to buy its stock? For example: if a company has no capital expenditures at all, and all the other companies do, its price/FCF ratio is likely to be lower than its price/CF ratio. I have a long list of companies whose price/FCF ratios are lower than their price/CF ratios. Of course, it was garnered from sources that you consider suspect."

I think what Pirah is saying is that since FCF = cash flow - cap. exp., FCF can never be larger than CF. Therefore, it's impossible to have a P/FCF which is lower than the P/CF.

In your example of no cap. exp., it's entirely possible that the P/CF of the company may look the same as everyone elses, but have a much more impressive P/FCF than everyone else. However, this doesn't change the fact that it's mathematically impossible for the P/FCF to be lower than the P/CF. If it appears that way, your source is either using a different definition of FCF than you are, or has garbled the numbers.

Company A
Price: 10
CF: 5
FCF: 1
P/CF: 2
P/FCF: 10

Company B
Price:10
CF:5
FCF:4
P/CF: 2
P/FCF: 2.5

Much more tempting P/FCF, but still higher than it's own P/CF.

Andrew



To: jbe who wrote (92)11/2/1997 3:59:00 PM
From: Pirah Naman  Respond to of 253
 
jbe:

> irah, you write: "Impossible to have great free cash flow without great cash flow." Why not?

jbe, you gave the answer yourself in the very first paragraph of this thread. free cash flow is defined as cash flow MINUS something. free cash flow can not be higher than cash flow.

> before concluding that the sources I have been using are "clearly
wrong " you might check them out first yourself.

If I blindly believed VL or S&P than this would be in order. But as I have repeatedly mentioned I have checked these against the original documents filed by CPQ, among others.

Pirah



To: jbe who wrote (92)11/2/1997 10:59:00 PM
From: Pirah Naman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 253
 
jbe:

> That www.msrn.com address you gave took me to a website for microcaps,

Sorry - transcription error. Try www.Wsrn.com

> only thing I turned up searching for Deloitte and Touche

The site I had used before was www.peerscape.com. IT was very slow. I just checked and they are updating it, so you can't use now.

Pirah