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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TRINDY who wrote (25527)	12/13/2009 6:30:21 PM
From: posthumousone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71455

TBT performed poorly over the summer when the rest of the market was screaming higher....it would sell off more when the market would dip... if market crashes, people will go buy long term tbills and this will go down... i do think tbt will scream higher eventually.... watch how it trades when the market goes down....

To: TRINDY who wrote (25527)	12/13/2009 8:22:29 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	1 Recommendation Respond to of 71455

TRINDY, my thought process is relatively simple. 1. the money center banks are mostly broke. 2. the money center banks need 2010 bonus cash. 3. the money center can choose the time and place to engage a credit crisis within certain time frame limits. 4. the markets are valued nearly 2x the previous bubble top in 2000. 5. the fed has to print money to keep the economy from collapsing. adding all this up, a 2nd credit crisis in Q1 makes perfect sense. why? let me count the ways... 1. a 2nd credit crisis will loosen the treasury purse strings right up and enable another trillion or two to flow from the treasury to the money center banks. 2. this trill will give the financial terrorist fresh cash to pay themselves bonuses in Q1 - they need their fix. 3. it gives the fed an excuse to keep the printing presses rolling well past the end of march. 4. obama can still blame bush. 5. it gives obama tiem to try and buy everyone's vote for the november elections in 2010 with stimulus version 3 - this time cash will be put in the common man's pocket. the republicrats will still win seats, though, but it doesn't matter as the money center banks have bought off almost everyone. if you were a banker and had to get new cash to keep your zombie bank running and get mega bonus cash, when you flash the unlimited debt card to transfer more wealth form the middle class to your bank? oh, and you want to keep your political crony tools happy, too. Q1 is my answer. if demand for treasuries increases, bonds go up and rates go down. TBT will go down in this scenario. if the market goes down, treasury demand will marginally increase in a "flight to safety," as perverse as that term is when applied to the buck.