gdxj - haven't followed it much at all, funds being generally not to my taste, and it was to have several holdings i wouldn't have picked, Novagold, Silvercorp, possibly Gabriel, latter two on political risk grounds ... overall it was not a bad mix maybe, but of midcaps really, to your typical canuck punter they're not 'juniors' any more once they've made it through 150m market cap, and that's the minimum for gdxj
Splitting it up, between the metal and its juniors - on gold my permanent short-term take is, 'not sure but think it could pull back for a bit', this may be more true at the moment than usually ... it could go the other way however, certainly there are not now and there aren't going to be any fundamental reasons why the fiat productions should gain in value
Juniors - well, leaving aside that gdxj is not juniors by my definition, this is the season for the puppy sector ... traditionally you have tax-loss season peaking out anywhere between now and two weeks ago, then sporadic relief rallies start happening, general Santa Claus rally usually, and some mid-winter ramps due to financing/promo seasonality, also imho partly because most punters are northern hemispheroids and spend more time indoors playing with the buy/sell buttons when the weather is ugly ... these effects are increased or decreased according to the year, tax-loss will not have been such an issue this year [it was huge last nov-dec], but generally if you make reasonably good picks on a basket of real juniors about now with a view to taking profit in late spring, you don't go too far wrong
Some just plain don't like gold, and by extension any of the commodities, nothing with its boots on the ground and some actual assets ... such is life, ain't no accounting for taste, and it is a good thing too, as it will really help to have fresh buyers who finally decide they like things a lot higher ... the TD pair there in your later post, for instance, all the way through this decade there have been such people prattling on much the same, hated gold and everything solid, from the 250s to the 1200s, look back far enough in the record and i bet you find they liked Nortel a lot, lol
Last year's deflationary doomerism showed gold to be quite resilient, other metals too, zinc, silver, copper to varying extents ... these may not tank the same should we get another round of deleveraging, especially gold which bounced well
General economies are not going to improve to where people forget to keep that ace-in-the-hole safety gold provides, not as long as they keep on printing, and they'll keep on printing until they're physically stopped from it i think ... has to run on to some sort of End Times, really hit the wall ... meantime, upsey doosey round and about, could test 1000 yes, could test lower without breaking long-term trend, but it's not a lock imho that gold needs to tank much at all
Metals prices don't have total effect on what i play, often what they hit with the drillbit and/or how they do at financing/promo work matters far more ... provided long-term commodity price trend is in, which it is even for humble zinc i think
Oil - my plan for months has been to look at o&g in february, same as this year, maybe play some little oilsands juniors and re-enter the old fave Suncor even ... but now thinking, it looks real iffy if we do get another round of deflation, may not have near the same bounce ... thoughts waver back to gold, it's like carriage return on a typewriter, start fresh, same ink but new line
Nice try changing subject, i will try to leave it be ... hard to let completely twisted propaganda just lie there stinking, though ... some of my early take on this came from a guy drafted into the IDF, son of z--n-sts who later recanted much of their fervour and wrote privately about it, he's still alive and won't let that stuff pass unchallenged either |
