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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bullw who wrote (6377)	11/2/1997 7:08:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

bull will check AVEI as a possible short and get back to you. I am desperately looking for sotcks to short! Pancho

To: bullw who wrote (6377)	11/2/1997 7:59:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Bull I checked AVEI, actually I am still reading. The company indeed seem to be very overpriced 22x sales! 90+x earnings. Given the current market volatile conditions (i.e., IMO we will see great volatility, particularly in the down side)this high p/e shorting this stock should provide an excelent SHORT TERM hedge for other long positions in your portfolio. However I must now tell you the other side of the story. This seems to be a great company with very impresive sales growth, incredibly high margins and except for temporary deviations seems to be headed up. One thing I noticed is that overseas sales Japan and Europe are very important (Asia?) so it is surprising that it did not colapsed some more with the turnmoil in Japan and the poor results reported for BSX (Boston Scientific). The stock is rated a buy by Sacks. In the process I found a competitor GDT (the ones suing them) for which all I said for AVEI also apply except that they sell for a multiple of about 47X earnings and around 13X sales. GDT has a Zacks STRONG BUY rating! Bottom line I consider both stocks good short term shorts. GDT I would short at around 57 (friday's close) and cover at under 50. AVEI I would short at 55+ and cover under 48. Good luck. I may short this pupies tomorrow. I will let you know if I do Pancho PS: needless to say shorting this or any stock is a dangerous thing to do, particularly if no long position is held as a hedge. And you should do your own homework. I fell the market is headed down so I want to limit my equty exposure by shorting instead of selling my wonderful? longs. Instead of shorting Spiders (SPY) I believe I would have a better chance by shorting some high flier like these two.