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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TideGlider who wrote (7833)	11/2/1997 3:39:00 PM
From: Shakush	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

FWIW, some have asked about TA so here's a few conventional and as usual, equivocal interpretations. I'm skeptical as to the predictive power of these things though concede they do sometimes seem to work. I think it was Emerson that expressed it best when he said "you can predict anything, except the future". IMHO, I see a possible analog to CYMI's behavior in certain futures markets that are particularly subject to manipulation by commercials (in CYMI's case - institutions) and large speculators (hedge funds). If small traders find themselves heavily on one side of the market (long or short), it's generally fundamentals be damned and the large traders will push the market in the opposite direction until Peter Public Pukes. They can do this with impunity because of their large capitalization, mastery of hedging strategies using options and other instruments, better access to information and sometimes an ability to influence the cash market for the underlying commodity. Obviously, one would not want to stand in front of a freight train yet people do it regularly (including on occasion, myself). To help avoid this unfortunate situation, I maintain CFTC data on the markets I trade. For those who don't know, the CFTC is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and it reports the positions of the three groups in all markets every 2nd Friday, after the close. Does anyone know what CYMI positions the equivalent groups hold? Many have suggested CYMI is being manipulated. If true, I think we can expect more rough treatment. The bottom will be in after the capitulation smelled by NYCNPBBKR. FWIW, horizontal chart support at 21.55, 17.60 and 15.35. Here is the TA commentary Thomas DeMark Expert Indicator: (REI = Range Expansion Index) TD REI = -43.50 and falling. TD Channel II high = 27.5571, low = 24.0458. Sequential Setup is at 9 down. The minimum conditions for a valid 'Nine Count' Setup Down have been satisfied. Expect the market to stabilize or to produce a short term reversal to the upside. However, unless the market is in a free fall or the larger trend is up, this reversal should be temporary and the decline should resume later. REI is declining but has not yet reached an oversold condition. Expect the trend to continue. The Close of this bar has exceeded the lower channel boundary. Once the market retreats back inside the lower band, expect prices to move up toward the upper channel. Note: When the Close of a bar is beyond the lower channel, the market can be in a run-away phase and price action can accelerate in the same direction. Use caution and wait for the Close to be within the channel to confirm a bottom. Also, consult the other indicators and the Special Conditions Report for confirming evidence of a possible bottom. ** Special Condition Report ** The relative position of all the indicators suggests a significant bottom is forming. Look for bullish price action within the next two bars to confirm this analysis. For More Information on the 'DeMark Indicators' contact: Duane Davis P.O. Box 736 Fairview, NC 28730 (704) 628-4222 Voice (704) 628-3100 Fax CCI Average Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-124.45) recently crossed below the sell line into bearish territory, and is currently short. This short position should be covered when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region. Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation,CCI (-124.45) is bearish, but has begun showing some strength. Begin looking for an attractive point to cover short positions and return to the sidelines. Volume Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: The current new low is not accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting that the current move lacks broad participation. Look for a rebound soon. Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN.The current new low is not accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting that the current move lacks broad participation. Look for a rebound soon. Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.