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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LzzrdKing who wrote (7839)	11/2/1997 6:44:00 PM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

With All Due Respect, none of us on this thread have any idea what will happen to the stock price tomorrow. Whatever happens, some on the thread will be proved right and others wrong. Will there really be confirmation in tomorrows movement that anyone really knows what moves the share price? I wonder, but think not. Let us remember also that there is a large conference going on in San Diego hosted by the major brokerage houses, and so information on what the Street thinks of the semiconductor industry, Cymer included, will be coming out shortly. Carl Johnson has an interesting viewpoint from Infrastructure that relates to Mason's views on the Book-to-Bill reversal of two weeks ago. Johnson's take is that the news coming out of the conference is going to be pretty good for some sectors of the industry. However, a ton of wafer capacity is coming on line, and a ton more is being built. Thus, while demand for chips from a host of industries (and not just the computer industry) keeps rising, the Street may very well be very afraid of another over capacity problem which, we all remember, crushed the share prices of most semicon stocks in 94-95. Therefore the reaction to the news coming out of the conference may be good, but muted somewhat. I expect that Cymer's report will be very good (they are showing an increased sensitivity to PR.) I also think that as long as the move to the smaller line size chips continues apace (and can be verified) that it will be difficult for the Street to completely ignore the good news, and some may be able to distinguish that Cymer is a supplier to the wafer industry, not a wafer manufacturer. However, the path northward for the share price may resemble "The Long and Winding Road" much more than the trajectory of a rocket. idle musings: jess.