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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kahunabear who wrote (8967)	11/3/1997 8:08:00 AM
From: Robert Morrison	Respond to of 94695

Whipsaw. I agree with your thoughts on the market's reaction to the Iraq issue. As I recall the market fell on the Kuwait invasion but roared back up with Operations Desert Sheild and Desert Storm. Hussein is using the ejection of US inspectors as simply a grandstanding manoveur to shore up his image as "the one who stood up to America". The issue will only get really serious if ALL UN inspectors are expelled. We are dealing with a very cunning, brutal mind that is only concerned about 3 things: (1) his standing (read self-image) in Iraq and the Arab world (which necessarily swings on an aggressive stance towards Israel; (2) the Kurds: and (3) the Sunni Muslims in Iran. The US would be unwise at this time to use extreme military force unless it is willing hit hard enough in an attempt to somehow win the propoganda war in Iraq and seriously destabilise his regime by causing Hussein to lose face. This strategy more than likely will be impossible to achieve so the US's best option is to grandstand him back - which is what is happening now. This sends the right political message throughout the Middle East and offers the military option of immediate retaliation. Don't think Hussein will use nerve gas in Europe. The Germans are his best source of supplies so he won't risk such an attack. Hussein knows the West's long term strategy with him is containment and a defacto endorsement as an Arab counter to the Persians in Iran. He will play these cards to the max. The biggest danger for the US is ensuring that the UN is/becomes/remains well and truly behind it in any military positioning in the Gulf. If America acts without comprehensive and continuing non-fractous UN endorsement then it risks isolating itself and losing face to Hussein thereby making him the victor out of all of this. Just feel sorry for the Iraqi people and what price they have paid and will continue to pay while under his rule not to mention the Kurds who really were misled and set up by the West at the end of Desert Storm when we all sat back and let Hussein butcher them - not a proud moment for the West but, what the hey, they don't own any oil wells and aren't loved by our NATO ally Turkey either so serves them right. Rob