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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RockyBalboa who wrote (25686)12/17/2009 11:23:55 AM
From: Real Man  Respond to of 71456
 
I was talking only about Max Pain for UNG, too many calls.
So, a pullback to 10 by close tomorrow would seem likely. But,
just as I said, NG is in "who knows" white swan territory.

My bullish "trade" set-up was the following:

As storage empties and gets cheaper, the risk taking crowd will
jump on Contango risk free trade. The setup is now complete,
Contango is gone, so Hell if I know what's next. If we believe
this is similar to oil in Winter 2008, then NG has bottomed
in the long term. With contango gone, there is much less risk
holding UNG and waiting for supply side to catch up with demand.



To: RockyBalboa who wrote (25686)12/17/2009 12:17:15 PM
From: Real Man  Respond to of 71456
 
The answer to the big spike is, in part, the weather. Huge
snowstorm everywhere, colder than normal in the next 3 weeks.
Which is always why things are kinda unpredictable and scary
with NG.

It is unclear if the accumulated glut has turned the corner, but
even if it didn't, colder than expected winter can drain all
excess supply. So, rather then being smart, the bulls might
just get lucky... The other way is also possible. -g-