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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (39714)12/17/2009 1:40:11 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71588
 
and Should be Killed

I agree.

• The worst part is the individual mandate coupled with no price regulation and no competition to private insurance from a robust public option.

The problem is the mandate, not a mandate uncoupled with other things.

Price regulation is normally a pretty bad thing, at best it can be a bad way to deal with a bad situation when you can't find an alternative. As for competition to private insurance, that's a silly concept, we need (and the extent that we have it could be debated) competition between private insurance providers, not a socialized insurance provider.

Nothing in the bill limits how much insurance companies can charge for premiums.

Good.

The Obama administration made a deal with the drug companies and reneged on its campaign pledge to allow Medicare to use its purchasing power to negotiate lower drug prices

More good.

• The Senate pays for part of the cost of the subsidies by charging a 40% excise tax on employer-paid health insurance policies costing more than $8500 for individuals or $23,000 for families. This is called a "Cadillac tax" but it's really a "Chevy tax". It would fall on approximately 19% of policies in its first year. Many union-negotiated policies cost more than this, especially for workers in high risk jobs. In addition many older people pay more than this in premiums. This will encourage businesses, in order to avoid the tax, to provide less expensive policies which have higher deductibles and higher co-pays paid for by their employees. (So much for President Obama's promise that "if you like the health insurance you have, you can keep it".)

Yes, this bill is all about taxes, and mandates. That's the problem.

if people have to pay more for their health care, they'll use less of it, which, economists says, will save money.

That's normally the way things work. Any claimed exceptions should require extraordinary evidence to back up the extraordinary claim.

In fact what it will do is discourage people from getting tested early for things like prostate or breast cancer or diabetes, or paying for drugs that can keep them healthier longer like cholesterol-lowering drugs, which will just lead to higher costs later if they get sick and need costly medical procedures.

While there are almost certainly exceptions for particular tests, overall earlier/more medical screening, increases costs it doesn't cut them. For each true positive (which might save money if a cost effective treatment is available, but may add extra costs in many scenarios), you get many true negatives (which add the additional cost of the test), and you also have false negatives (which may cause the person to think they are ok, and thus cause more health risk), and false positives (which add cost for treatment which itself can result in further health problems).

It might produce better results, which might be worth the extra cost, but the cost should be recognized and added in to any calculation.

• Congress gave drug companies a 12-year exclusivity period on biologic drugs, before such drugs can be sold at cheaper rates by generic manufacturers. In addition, by making small modifications (e.g creating a slow-release version), drug manufacturers can extend this exclusivity indefinitely.

This might be an area for some reform, but we should proceed carefully, and not have it be a "have to pass it now" type of bill.

Pass the cost-savings reforms to Medicare. In particular, abolish the Medicare Advantage program which subsidizes private insurance companies to provide Medicare drug benefits at a 17% higher cost than the government-run Medicare plan.

I'm not a big fan of the Medicare Advantage program, so I'm not going to put too much information in to defending it, but the 17% higher cost claim is at least somewhat dubious.

Use the Medicare savings to increase Medicaid eligibility to 150% of the Federal Poverty Level, and subsidize the states for the extra cost.

There is unlikely to be significant Medicare savings to use, and if there is any you just transfer the funds to Medicare, than that isn't reforming anything, just adding more big government.

Let Medicare use its negotiating power to lower drug costs and allow people to buy cheaper drugs in Canada.

Yes, government monopsony buyers, always a good idea...

Revoke the insurance company's anti-trust exemption

Not a good idea. See theincidentaleconomist.com

Let uninsured individuals buy into the Federal Employee Health Plan available to government workers, without any restrictions on pre-existing conditions.

Even dropping the "without any restrictions on pre-existing conditions" point, it could be pretty expensive insurance for these people if they aren't going to receive a public subsidy (and if they do, its still expensive, its just someone else is paying for it, or part of it).

If you force the "pre-existing condition" clause in to the plan, then you'll need a massive public subsidy if you aren't going to bankrupt the FEHP plans.

---

A better plan would be a more free market, minimalist plan. Allow for interstate competition between insurers, work on tort reform, work on ways to contain costs within the Medicare and Medicaid systems, before trying to expand them, or have government take over more insurance outside of them. Then look at the results and see if more is needed.



To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (39714)12/17/2009 11:24:11 PM
From: Peter Dierks  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71588
 
Democrats on the Health-Care
Precipice Enacting health-care legislation in the face of overwhelming public disapproval may cost the party its chance of forging a sustainable majority.
By KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL
DECEMBER 17, 2009, 10:47 P.M. ET.

Barack Obama emerged from his meeting with Senate Democrats this week to claim Congress was on the "precipice" of something historic. Believe him. The president is demanding his party unilaterally enact one of the most unpopular and complex pieces of social legislation in history. In the process, he may be sacrificing Democrats' chances at creating a sustainable majority.

Slowly, slowly, the Democratic health agenda is turning into a political suicide pact. Congressional members have been dragged along by momentum, by threat, by bribe, but mostly by the White House's siren song that it would be worse to not pass a bill than it would be to pass one. If that ever were true, it is not today.

Public opinion on ObamaCare is at a low ebb. This week's NBC-WSJ poll: A mere 32% of Americans think it a "good" idea. The Washington Post: Only 35% of independents support it—down 10 points in a month. Resurgent Republic recently queried Americans over the age of 55, aka Those Most Likely to Vote In a Midterm Election. Sixty-one percent believe ObamaCare will increase their health costs; 68% believe it will increase the deficit; 76% believe it will raise their taxes.

Democrats also have managed to alienate the liberal base to which they were catering. The death of the public option and Medicare buy-in this week sent Howard Dean to thundering "kill the bill." A week from now, the current polls might look good.

Yet it is in individual states where the disconnect between the White House's soothing words and the ugly political reality is most stark. While Democrats are under fire for the economy and spending, it is health care that has voters thinking it's time for political change.

Consider North Dakota. A recent Zogby poll showed 28% (you read that right) of state voters support "reform." A full 40% said they'd be less likely to vote for Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan next year if he supports a bill. In a theoretical matchup with Republican Gov. John Hoeven (who has yet to announce), Mr. Hoeven wins 55% to 36%. Mr. Dorgan has been in the Senate 17 years; he won his last election with 68% of the vote. This should not be happening.

In Arkansas, 32% support this health-care legislation. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, also running next year, trails challengers by more than 50 points among the 56% of voters who strongly disapprove of the health plan. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, the public face of health reform, can barely break 38% approval in Nevada. In Colorado, where 55% of voters oppose a health bill, appointed Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet told CNN he'd vote for a bill even if it "cost him his job." Give the freshman credit for honesty.

Nor is this a red state/swing state phenomenon. In deep-blue Delaware, 46% oppose the health plan. Democrats pounded Delaware GOP Rep. Mike Castle, running for Senate, for voting against the House bill. That vote has in fact kept Mr. Castle leading his expected opponent, Beau Biden, the vice president's son. Chris Dodd helped author the Senate health bill and is up for re-election next year. He is arguably the Senate's most politically vulnerable Democrat.

Don't trust the polls? In the past weeks, four well known House Democrats announced they will not run for re-election. All are longtime incumbents; one, Tennessee's respected John Tanner, co-founded the Blue Dog coalition. These folks have seen the political handwriting on the wall.

Democrats have also been pulled by another White House promise: That once Americans witness reform, they will turn around. Yet even supporters know this ugly bill will not "fix" health care. The problems will remain—with more in addition—and Democrats will own them. Meanwhile, the backlash against the pending health-care legislation is seeping out to hamper Democrats' broader agenda. Pew this week published a poll in which it marveled (fretted?) over the "extent to which the public has moved in a conservative direction on a range of issues" since President Obama took office.

So why the stubborn insistence on passing health reform? Think big. The liberal wing of the party—the Barney Franks, the David Obeys—are focused beyond November 2010, to the long-term political prize. They want a health-care program that inevitably leads to a value-added tax and a permanent welfare state. Big government then becomes fact, and another Ronald Reagan becomes impossible. See Continental Europe.

The entitlement crazes of the 1930s and 1960s also caused a backlash, but liberal Democrats know the programs of those periods survived. They are more than happy to sacrifice a few Blue Dogs, a Blanche Lincoln, a Michael Bennet, if they can expand government so that in the long run it benefits the party of government.

What's extraordinary is that more Democrats have not wised up to the fact that they are being used as pawns in this larger liberal game. Maybe Mr. Obama will see a bump in the polls if health care passes; maybe not. What is certain is that this vote is becoming one that many in his party will not survive.

Write to: kim@wsj.com

online.wsj.com