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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (36229)	12/17/2009 9:06:56 PM
From: anializer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78752

When the report of a delayed filing hit in November, I exited before any harm could be done. I don't like delayed filings as they could be prone to a bad news event shortly thereafter. Things appeared a little to iffy at that time but I still think it looks OK and even with a potential write down or loss, the loss is unlikely to be large enough to offset the huge discount to tangible asset valuation it sells at. Looking at another group of small banks in the value watchlist, the market action seems to imply the end is near for their existence. Some may go but there must be a winner among them. Among them AMFI OKSB WCBO EBTX CSWC SNBC BBX ABBC MBHI STSA FNBN MBTF IBCP SBCF GRNB TSFG FTBKD FBC. I'm not to good at analyzing these type of situations, but statistically speaking, there has to be a survivor among them. Which one or two is the question of the day.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (36229)	12/19/2009 12:36:35 PM
From: Area51	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78752

KCAP: I still own a significant position here(unlike CHNG where I bought small). My feel is that it should throw off a 16% + yield for many years. But this is largely offset by a significant chance that you wake up to bad news and lose several years of dividends overnight. Did you find the safest and cheapest homebuilder stock you could find yet? AVTR looks interesting to me (book value in the high thirties and $9 cash (net of debt) so I think they will still be around when the cycle turns back up). And IMN seekingalpha.com , STEC are what I am considering in tech land. Best Regards, A51