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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Koligman who wrote (8431)	11/2/1997 10:20:00 PM
From: gmccon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

John, I think the sector as we know it today (the box and everything in it) has had its day in the sun. No more insane profits on existing technology. It is only a coincidence that "Monday" occurred at about the time that the sub-1,000 system has become the standard. My opinion is that there isn't enough profit in $1,000 systems to be spead about among all of the contributors to the content of the box (chips, drives, boards, etc.) to where they will all just keep making insane profits. Those days are over, like I say, until the latest technology is unveiled. So I don't see companies like RDRT and SEG charging back up to 40 and 50 dollars a share in the next six months. Not on their existing technology. There simply isn't the same level profit to go around anymore. My point was that it will take the next level of technology to excite us end users enough into spending the equivilent of $3,000 for today's computer system again. We are no longer paying for R&D. The big profits are gone from existing computer technology. Don't get defensive. Life goes on. We'll still all make money in the market. It will just be in different ways. I expect CPQ and DELL to eat what's left of everybody's lunch. But I expect HP and IBM to put even more pressure on everyone, too. I just think that the hay day is over for the time being. I'm not recommeding anyone eat their magnum. As an aside, there will be some great deals for the consumer. Me. :-) Regarding Tuesday's action, there was no need for Monday's. But that happens. Its a part of health management for the market. I do wish it would have fallen freely, unobstructed by "computer stops". Find the appropriate bottom level and have done with it. Personally, I was wiped out. But it was all paper and I'm now on my way back up in different companies. It always goes back up. Always. Relax, opinions only here. And I appreciate the opportunity to express my view of things. No doubt I will some day invest in CPQ again. Its a great company. As is Jabil, and WDC, etc. Things just won't be the same for some time. That's all I'm saying John. Nothing remains the same. Change is inevitable and good. I welcome your view. Greg BTW, I think what the Chinese president had to say was very bullish. So do the Asian markets this morning. :-) I'm sure that bodes well for CPQ. Good luck to us all.