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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (45986)	12/20/2009 6:23:58 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71156

Tech Stocks Commentary Magical Mobile Stocks Rebecca Runkle, 12.18.09, 04:55 PM EST Which mobile Internet stocks will dominate 2010. Combining our other top themes for 2010, Mobility is a no-brainer. Results from Research In Motion and Palm last night demonstrate accelerating momentum in the smart phone market. Both players beat top-line expectations with strength in International markets (primarily Europe) and through partners such as Best Buy and Wal-Mart, which are using further subsidies on mobile devices to drive traffic this holiday season. We want to be long Apple ( AAPL - news - people ) and Motorola ( MOT - news - people ) going into January--both players will likely surprise on the upside and this is our biggest takeaway post the RIMM/PALM results last night. As it relates to Nokia ( NOK - news - people ), I want to do more work to better understand international strength versus share shifts in the current market. My gut says to be long for the trade, but I still view NOK as a player with downside. Article Controls Emailemail imageprint imagereprint imagenewsletter imagecomments imageshare imagedel.icio.us imageDigg It! imageyahoo imageFacebook imageTwitter imageReddit imagerss Yahoo! Buzz Over and over again, people underestimate the scale, duration and intensity of technology cycles. I could find a hundred quotations suggesting that a cycle was basically over when it was only just beginning, or that a new product would be useless when it’s now an integral part of our daily lives. I firmly believe that people are not bullish enough on mobility and have not realized the possibilities that it holds. The latter is certainly true for me, too--I wish I could predict exactly where we’re going and what products will become important, but I don’t have that power. Although I may not be able to predict every specific product, I can say that mobility, like so many tech cycles before it, is going to be bigger than anyone thinks. Not only that, technology gets cheaper every day. Calls that the cycle has run its course should be taken with a hefty grain of salt. Far from being almost over, mobility--especially the mobile Internet--is just beginning. This isn’t just about packaging desktop applications into smaller form factors. The mobile Internet is a different beast altogether. Mobile devices will increasingly be connected to the cloud and therefore be able to leverage all available information--in real time. Mobile ecosystems are just now beginning to grasp, harness and build applications that take advantage of connected mobile devices. Apple and the iPhone showed the world some of what’s possible, and now technological innovation and creative intelligence are coming together in order to bring heretofore unforeseen products and services to consumers and enterprises around the world. Real-Time Quotes 12/18/2009 4:00PM ET * RIMM * $70.00 * 10.31% * BBY * $39.50 * -3.52% * WMT * $52.85 * 0.17% * AAPL * $195.43 * 1.86% * MOT * $8.53 * 5.18% Get Quote BATS Real-Time Market Data by Xignite We believe that the mobile Internet will be much bigger than people think. It will create new opportunities and necessities for just about every company. More devices, more services and more data access will fuel explosive growth. Currently, only 20% of mobile devices worldwide use 3G networks, which are much faster and better suited for modern smart phones. With the iPhone, Apple has shown what is possible, driving demand for more and better data service, and other companies are poised to capitalize on this opportunity. Meanwhile, the convergence of local, social and mobile technologies will allow end-users to get highly relevant information at any time--which in turn creates more demand. Related Stories * Tech Stock Trends For 2010 * The Four Horsemen Of The Mobile Internet * When Google Runs Your Life * Entrepreneur Behind Joojoo Has A Lot To Do * Facebook's Favorite Gadgets Related Videos * Sally Ride's History-Making Decision * Google Eyes Yelp * A Protectionist World * Week Ahead: Micron, ConAgra * Mercy Corps' Banking Solution * Stories * Videos Rate This Story * Your Rating * Overall Rating Reader Comments Post a Comment Smart phone mass adoption is only just beginning. Purchase intent rises on the back of successful product launches and has risen around 50% over the last two years. As more products come to market, so-called “walled gardens” like the App Store will be share givers to open systems and to the Web. Meanwhile, we will continue to see stand-alone products get transformed into features of a more robust offering, as recently happened with Google ( GOOG - news - people ) Maps Navigation taking down TomTom and Navteq ( NVT - news - people ) (Nokia) navigation devices. Finally, product cycles will be driven by software, not hardware. In an iPhone world, it is the operating system and apps that differentiate the user experience--not the hardware. Ultimately (more than three years), however, the Internet will define how end-users experience mobility. At that point, the cycle will shift back to hardware platforms and overall user interfaces. As the mobile Internet matures, a greater share of the economics will go toward online commerce, paid services and advertising, while data will get proportionately less revenue. Make no mistake, data revenue growth will still be substantial, as more data (and more complex data) flow to more devices more often, but other segments of the market will grow faster. At the same time, new marketing and advertising opportunities will arise from the combination of local, social and mobile, which allows advertisers to efficiently hit their targeted demographics. Beyond that, more mobile devices in end-users' hands will create more opportunities for online commerce, both consumer and enterprise oriented. Rebecca Runkle is Managing Director for Technology at ResearchEdge.