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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Golconda who wrote (59238)	12/21/2009 12:44:06 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218228

I am sure some positions expire worthless and some are netted out, but the notional amounts are so enormous that it is a virtual certainty that they will affect the markets for a very long time. 30yr yields less than 1%? doubt it, i think i'd take the other side of that trade and a few others would probably do also, paul tudor jones? oil $10? factories in china worth zero? houses worth close to zero? I should be grateful for the authors details so the above trades would be available to all. The Automatic Earth does take somewhat extreme positions sometimes, but not always outrageous ones. If we do get to a situation where there are EU sovereign defaults, which is not completely out of the question, the flight to safety could be a stampede. China's numbers make no sense at all. If it hits the fan for China at about the same time sovereign defualts take place, yes, some of the more extreme scenarios could become true. Probable? Certainly not. Possible? Only at the extreme edge of the outliers. But isn't that what happened in 2008? Stuff that we did not think in our wildest dreams could come true did. It is the extreme risks that we need to protect against.

To: Golconda who wrote (59238)	12/22/2009 6:51:31 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218228

real economy hostage of Finance economy. Need decoupling else will bring down the real economies. All heavy-finance economies must be weeded out so as to let the real economies continue apace. The minnows most glaring cases of finance going haywire: Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Dubai, Hungary already started. Will be followed by Mediterranée Club countries in 2010. Now we need the big fish to be cleansed. It is not the world that will be endangered by the fall of the major finance-heavy countries, it is themselves that are deferring the final fall in the abyss. Thus holding real economies hostage.