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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (234041)	12/22/2009 7:07:00 PM
From: John Chen	Respond to of 306849

" We all know November existing home sales were goosed by buyers rushing to meet the initial homebuyer tax credit deadline. So when sales drop sharply in December (and they will), months-of-supply will increase " Same trick like 'cash for clunker'. Give them credit for trying the same trick to the same people ( taxpayers ). AWESOME.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (234041)	12/22/2009 8:14:17 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

From: russet 12/22/2009 7:36:01 PM 1 Recommendation of 105775 False Positive Signals For The Economy 18 December 2009 6 Comments By Greg Hunter usawatchdog.com According to economist John Williams at Shadow Government Statistics (SGS), we are getting “… false positive signals…” for monthly numbers such as retail sales and unemployment. So, a recovery looks like it is taking place when a deeper analysis into the government numbers shows it is not. Williams says in his latest report, “Generally, the economy continues to sink or bottom-bounce; no recovery is in place.” A perfect example of a false positive is the seasonally-adjusted retail sales data from last year compared to now. In November 2008, we were in the middle of a financial meltdown. When you simply compare this November to last November, it looks like there are improving sales. But if you compare November 2009 to normal years when we were not in a meltdown, such as 2006 and 2007, then retail sales have fallen slightly. The government has recently been reporting low inflation numbers and, in fact, inflation has gone down because of the ongoing financial crisis. But this month, inflation bounced back according to Williams. The annual Consumer Price Index jumped to 8.8%. Williams calculates inflation the way the government did it before 1980. He does that to get a truer read of the “real” inflation picture. In my mind, this is the real cost of maintaining your standard of “living” as opposed to maintaining the cost of “surviving.” The cost of surviving is what you get when the government substitutes hamburger for steak when the price of meat goes up. In short, modern government calculation gimmicks distort inflation to make it look less than it really is. That can also give a false positive for the economy. Unemployment is another area that the government distorts to look better that it really is. Officially, the Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) says unemployment is at 10%. If you calculate unemployment the way BLS did it before 1994, as Williams does, the true unemployment rate would be more than 21%. If unemployment was reported by the government at more than 20%, it would not look like the country is recovering, would it? The same distortions are showing up in housing this month according to Shadow Government Statistics. According to the latest government data, housing starts were up a surprising 8.9%! In fact, housing starts are about half of what they were in 1990! The government got the big increase because of calculation gimmicks to make housing look better than it really is according to SGS. Williams says, “The November housing “gain” is statistically not different from zero.” In other words, “there is no recovery in place.” The mainstream media should question all government numbers but, instead, the data is accepted as totally accurate. It seems to me that government data these days is all about hype and false hope.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (234041)	12/22/2009 8:20:18 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

It's all about how one wants to twist and interpret the data, which you have a habit of slanting to the bearish side. All I wrote today was that people shouldn't be fooled by the decline in months-of-supply. We aren't approaching a normal market with 4 to 6 months of supply. Once again, not sure how you're getting from point A to B? Do you discount the fact that housing sales are typically slow at this time of the year? Are you insinuating that there won't be the typical housing pick-up in the Spring, which is just around the corner? What will that to do sales? Much of the non-free economic commentary I read de-emphasizes the importance of the tax credit. You act like every sale that has occurred is because of the tax credit. I didn't even bother repeating the RECESSION is over. On the excess inventory, some people only think in terms of 'existing home inventory' and forget all the other measures of excess housing. That is just another obvious point. Actually no, it's not obvious. Do you have official statistics on "shadow inventory"? I have strong links to the best minds on the buy-side, have access to he best research out there, and I sure don't. I can tell you this. The hard data I DO HAVE shows that pipeline inventory of REO's are at their lowest point since the crisis began and a far more important fact: haircuts have been reduced substantially as the market clearing price has been established. And I also pointed out that house prices are now falling again. Well, duh. That is just a fact. Thanks for pointing out a silly useless "fact". More important than a MoM fall in housing prices is that housing prices have ESTABLISHED a low. I don't claim any great insights - I was just stating the obvious. So am I.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (234041)	12/23/2009 10:29:43 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

Today's AP housing headline: November new home sales sink 11 percent (AP) FILE - In this Aug 26, 2009 file photo, a sold sign is posted outside a recently sold home in Springfield, Ill. Sales of new homes are expected to post a small increase in November for the third month in a row, a sign that the housing market is finally on solid ground. (AP Photo/Seth Perlman, File)AP - Sales of new homes plunged unexpectedly last month to the lowest level since April, a sign the housing market recovery will be rocky. Hoocoodanode? <G> `BC