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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (234051)	12/22/2009 8:45:25 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 306849

Well that's great you went long the market. I sold the market May 1998, bought mid October 1998, sold March 2000, bought March 2003, sold Aug 2007 and bought March 2009. Because hey, anything is possible without proof. There's also a concentration issue with regard to inventory which is why using a macro bludgeon isn't really appropriate when a scalpel is needed. I do think even within the aggregate data, the SURPRISE will come with how fast housing prices go back to the old highs on a national level. I think within 4 years (along with real GDP and IP) at which point they will stall. Economic hardship has depressed the figures and caused everybody to look at housing stats with one eye closed. Remember, there has never been a recession, expansion, and then subsequent recession without GDP and housing prices making testing old levels. Even the Depression. The natural state of the economy is growth. P.S. I think the aggregate information Zillow is a far superior way of evaluating local housing markets (not individual houses). Still like your website and have used the charts (with referencing) for many presentations.