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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (234168)	12/23/2009 11:43:47 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 306849

<<Also, housing works in distinct cycles. The factors you mentioned led to unprecedented declines in prices. Certainly in the Phoenix's and Cape Coral's of the world, it will take at least a decade to recoup the losses. In the last cycle, aggregate pricing was back to the highs by 1992 even though some areas took 10 more years to come back. Maybe 4 years is a bit provactive, I agree, but it will be a helluva lot faster than people think in America's globalized cities and "NEVER" in a fiat regime is a strong word... Either way unless you're a blogging bear with a vested interest, it's funny how the converstation has changed from "how low will it go" to "how long will it take to recoup the losses...">> I don't think prices will go up that fast. We are talking a tripling in general in Cape Coral to get back to peak. You need to have little available land to build new construction, high inflation and low interest rates for that even to be possible. One good thing to look at is are there large parcels of land nearby where the national builders can build at 40% less than what a small spec builder can build on an individual lot. Last time out it appeared to take nearly a decade from 1990 to recoup losses even in NYC. One factor not mentioned is the ease of obtaining information on the net this cycle without even leaving your home which should help bump up investor and relocation interest in prime destination markets in the sunbelt the most.