Obama Might Struggle In 2010 As Public Turns Against Agenda
By SEAN HIGGINS, Posted 07:27 PM ET
President Obama has admitted to being frustrated with the progress of his agenda in Congress and the Copenhagen climate talks collapse.
He should brace himself. He is likely to experience many more setbacks in 2010. The president still has a lot on his plate, and the prospects for getting something done are growing dimmer.
"Historically it is always tough for the party in power during these midterm elections," said Hari Sevugan, a spokesman for the Democratic National Committee.
Obama's main foe — at least in terms of his legislative plans — is time. As the year wears on and the 2010 midterm elections approach, it will be increasingly difficult to focus members of Congress on anything other than their own re-election prospects.
Moderate Democrats up for re-election, like Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, have already demanded numerous concessions on health care. They are not likely to be easier to deal with in 2010.
He's Mortal Now
Obama can no longer rely on public acclaim to buoy his agenda. After the dizzying highs of early 2009, his approval ratings are more earthbound. Rasmussen has his disapproval higher, at 52% .
RealClearPolitics.com's weighted average of Obama polls puts his approval at 49%, with 45.2% disapproving, an ominously thin margin so early in a presidency.
Voters are more likely to say that they are conservative and that the government has been doing too much since Obama took office.
"He is on the knife's edge. I think his presidency is at stake in the next 10 months," said David Coates, a political science professor at Wake Forest University. "The midterms hold the key. If he doesn't do something between now and then, he'll face a pretty uncooperative Congress for the rest of his term. And he has a pretty uncooperative one now."
Better Hurry
The best hope the administration has for clearing up unfinished business and getting ahead will be a burst of activity in early 2010. Obama admitted as much in a recent PBS interview.
"We hope to have a whole bunch of folks over here in the West Wing, and I'll be rolling up my sleeves and spending some time before the full Congress even gets back into session, because the American people need it now," he said.
David Mark, senior editor of Politico and author of "Going Dirty: The Art of Negative Campaigning," says Obama has a short window in early 2010 to get anything done.
"Obama's problem is that he is personally more popular than his policies," Mark said. "It is going to be tougher and tougher as we get toward Election Day."
The DNC's Sevugan argues that Democrats got plenty accomplished in 2009 — he cites health care, student loans and fair pay bills — and that the public will reward them for that. Especially when contrasted with the Republicans' opposition.
Nevertheless, they will "focus like a laser" on finishing up as much of the agenda as they can, he added.
Finishing health care will be first on the to-do list. But the same basic problems that have made Obama's health overhaul such a struggle still exist despite the Christmas Eve passage of the Senate bill.
The House version includes a government-run insurer and tougher restrictions on abortion funding; the Senate bill does not. And the Senate bill has different tax hikes, among other notable variations. Reconciling the legislation will be a challenge.
The House could simply pass the Senate bill and be done, but liberal House members and advocacy groups seem inclined to insist on House-Senate negotiations — formal or not — to try to get a few more things.
The end result is still likely to be close to the Senate version, because there are no votes to spare in the upper chamber.
The Senate will also consider a $177 billion jobs bill passed by the House on Dec. 16. With unemployment at 10%, Democrats will be eager to show that they are at least trying something.
Democratic leaders will push for speedy approval, but that will encourage lawmakers to try to lard it with earmarks for their states, which is also apt to slow the legislative process.
Once the administration settles these items — one way or another — a renewed climate push is probably next. A cap-and-trade bill has been stalled in the Senate for months.
A tripartisan group — Sens. John Kerry, D-Mass., Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Joe Lieberman, I-Conn. — has been trying to renew interest by including expanded nuclear power and offshore drilling in the plan. They have found few takers.
The climate talks' collapse should slow U.S. efforts, since one reason to push for a bill in 2009 was to have it done in time for Copenhagen.
With that deadline gone and future international progress uncertain, moderate Republicans and Democrats from coal-dependent states will be in even less of a mood to compromise.
Several moderate Democratic senators have publicly urged the administration to back off on the issue.
Climate change is at least an area where the White House is, in theory, in league with the broader international community, even if actual consensus is nonexistent.
Issues like Iran are much thornier. The regime has responded to the administration's overtures by continuing its nuclear work apace, as well as apparently rigging its elections and continuing crackdowns on anti-government protesters. Still, the administration has remained cautious, offering modestly critical words and trying to build consensus for economic sanctions.
Good News Is No News
The Obama administration is seen staying the course in Iraq and Afghanistan this year. The administration has indicated that pullouts won't begin until 2011. In Afghanistan, Obama has boosted forces by 30,000, making the administration politically invested in the stability of the country.
But Obama faces much the same problem as did President Bush — good news is no news. There were no U.S. combat deaths in Iraq in December, the first month that's happened since the 2003 invasion. But it was overshadowed by the year-end suicide bombing in Afghanistan that killed seven CIA agents.
And all of that was overshadowed by the attempted Christmas airline bombing and the administration's bungled public response that raised doubts about the administration's toughness and seriousness on terrorism.
Union Dues
Big Labor is still waiting for its top agenda item: card-check legislation, which would make it far easier to organize workers. This was shelved in favor of health care last year, a move the unions probably regret now because the Senate health care bill includes a tax on high-end insurance plans that unions say will hit many of their members.
Given the effort unions threw behind Obama's 2008 campaign, Big Labor expects some payback.
But with several moderate Democrats opposed to card check, supporters don't have the votes to break a Senate filibuster. Even pro-union stalwarts like Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, have waffled on having a vote. Various compromises — including dumping card check in favor of other pro-union provisions — are resisted by Big Business and have little support in Congress. |
