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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skip Danger who wrote (234716)	12/30/2009 11:20:40 AM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

EDIT!:)i copy and paste the call/opinion you linked to--frankly hope you are right:))As i now note you are Bushong:) Market Opinion Dec 12, 2009 [Stocks] SHORT TERM: (3 days - 3 weeks) - I will not be doing short term opinions, unless demand should warrant it. MEDIUM TERM: (1 month - 5 months) - Sell - I don't expect a lot of price action for the rest of December. Professional money managers will soon be closing their books and heading home for the holidays. The short term market technicals are neutral. The S&P is within a couple of percentage points from where it was 3 - 4 months ago. But, once January 2010 arrives, my guess is it looks like January 2008. DOWN! LONG TERM: (More than 6 months) - Sell - My proprietary and intermediate indicator, MaxHeadRoom, is now 17% below it's peak set in September. My AD3, and all it's components, has been drifting south since August. The BKX (bank index) has been in retreat, too. The well known KST has been moving down since the first of November. And, my short term indicator, ST, is only now starting down and has a long way to fall. If you believe in timing your life by the numbers, you simply have to be bearish. Of course something drastically fundamental could change over the next few week, and it might. But my feeling is it will not be a positive, and only reinforce the negatives. One thing that might happen is when the final figures are in, Christmas retail will be much weaker than last year, and last year was a disaster. We're already seeing preliminary reports that suggest this may happen. But if the market tanks from here, as I suspect, the real question will be: "Will the March low of S&P666 hold?" I have to say, I'm skeptical. Reason: I don't think there is any way possible for the government to throw another 5 or 10 trillion dollars into the system. My feeling is that historians will view this period about the same as we view 1929-1945. As of this writing, long term investors will simply want to stay on the sidelines.